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Dot-com and AI bubbles: Can data from the past be helpful to match the price bubble euphoria phase using dynamic time warping?

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  • Potrykus, Marcin

Abstract

The article investigates the existence of a price bubble in the artificial intelligence market, employing the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and dynamic time warping methodology. It proposes a method to detect the end of the price bubble euphoria phase, generating an average profit of close to 7 % over 5 days and over 10.5 % over 20 days, with almost 90 % effectiveness. The study found that the AI market experienced a phase of euphoria due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Four companies – META PLATFORMS, WORKDAY, SALESFORCE and NVIDIA CORPORATION – were identified, whose stock prices currently resemble the euphoria phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Potrykus, Marcin, 2024. "Dot-com and AI bubbles: Can data from the past be helpful to match the price bubble euphoria phase using dynamic time warping?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:67:y:2024:i:pa:s1544612324008298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105799
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oleksandr Melnychenko, 2025. "Artificial Intelligence in Regulating Production Volumes for Sustainable Development: Qualitative and Quantitative Aspects," Virtual Economics, The London Academy of Science and Business, vol. 8(1), pages 40-57, March.
    2. Potrykus, Marcin & Ramzan, Imran & Bouri, Elie, 2025. "Investing in national art markets: Price explosivity and co-explosivity," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Zhanyong Zou & Changxiu Luo & Yikang Tang & Shulin Xu & Xing Li, 2025. "Bubbles Identification in the New Round of Technological Prosperity: Evidence from Strategic Emerging Industries in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 15(4), pages 21582440251, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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