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Do economic news releases affect tail risk? Evidence from an emerging market

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  • Gkillas, Konstantinos
  • Konstantatos, Christoforos
  • Tsagkanos, Athanasios
  • Siriopoulos, Costas

Abstract

We study the impact of economic news releases of the United States on the tail risk of Mexican financial markets. We also control for the impact of (domestic) economic news releases of Mexico. We consider daily data for: (i) the equity market, (ii) the foreign exchange market, as well as (iii) sovereign bonds, (iv) financial institutional bonds and (v) corporate bonds. We estimate tail risk with the use of Value at Risk by employing conditional autoregressive Value at Risk specifications. The models considered are: (i) the adaptive model, (ii) the symmetric slope model, (iii) the asymmetric slope model and (iv) the indirect generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with an autoregressive mean. The empirical findings show that economic news releases of the US and Mexico have a statistically significant impact on the tail risk of Mexican financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2021. "Do economic news releases affect tail risk? Evidence from an emerging market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:40:y:2021:i:c:s154461232030297x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101727
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    3. Afees A. Salisu & Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2023. "Climate risks and U.S. stock‐market tail risks: A forecasting experiment using over a century of data," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 228-244, June.
    4. Ha, Le Thanh, 2022. "Storm after the Gloomy days: Influences of COVID-19 pandemic on volatility of the energy market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Forecasting stock-market tail risk and connectedness in advanced economies over a century: The role of gold-to-silver and gold-to-platinum price ratios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & Pierdzioch, Christian & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Disaggregated oil shocks and stock-market tail risks: Evidence from a panel of 48 economics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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