IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v44y2012i1p1044-1058.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat
  • MacGill, Iain F.

Abstract

This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2012. "Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1044-1058.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:44:y:2012:i:1:p:1044-1058
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.04.042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544212003404
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2012.04.042?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Green, 2008. "Carbon Tax or Carbon Permits: The Impact on Generators Risks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 67-90.
    2. Bushnell, James, 2010. "Building Blocks: Investment in Renewable and Non-Renewable Technologies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31546, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Sawangphol, Narumitr & Pharino, Chanathip, 2011. "Status and outlook for Thailand's low carbon electricity development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 564-573, January.
    4. Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Centolella, Paul, 1995. "Environmental policies and their effects on utility planning and operations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 255-271.
    5. Mulugetta, Yacob & Mantajit, Nathinee & Jackson, Tim, 2007. "Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3256-3269, June.
    6. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2012. "A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 374-392.
    7. Nakawiro, Thanawat & Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Limmeechokchai, Bundit, 2008. "Electricity capacity expansion in Thailand: An analysis of gas dependence and fuel import reliance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 712-723.
    8. Huang, Yun-Hsun & Wu, Jung-Hua, 2008. "A portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 627-641, February.
    9. Shimon Awerbuch, 2006. "Portfolio-Based Electricity Generation Planning: Policy Implications For Renewables And Energy Security," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 693-710, May.
    10. Delarue, Erik & De Jonghe, Cedric & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Applying portfolio theory to the electricity sector: Energy versus power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 12-23, January.
    11. Arnesano, M. & Carlucci, A.P. & Laforgia, D., 2012. "Extension of portfolio theory application to energy planning problem – The Italian case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 112-124.
    12. Samantha Ölz & Milou Beerepoot, 2010. "Deploying Renewables in Southeast Asia: Trends and potentials," IEA Energy Papers 2010/6, OECD Publishing.
    13. Marian Radetzki, 2000. "Coal or Nuclear in New Power Stations: The Political Economy of an Undesirable but Necessary Choice," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 135-147.
    14. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2010. "Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1391-1402.
    15. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F. & Nakawiro, Thanawat, 2012. "Assessing the sustainability challenges for electricity industries in ASEAN newly industrialising countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 2217-2233.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arif Widiatmojo & Sasimook Chokchai & Isao Takashima & Yohei Uchida & Kasumi Yasukawa & Srilert Chotpantarat & Punya Charusiri, 2019. "Ground-Source Heat Pumps with Horizontal Heat Exchangers for Space Cooling in the Hot Tropical Climate of Thailand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-22, April.
    2. de-Llano Paz, Fernando & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Calvo Silvosa, Anxo & Soares, Isabel, 2014. "The technological and environmental efficiency of the EU-27 power mix: An evaluation based on MPT," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 67-81.
    3. E.D. Kormishkin & O.S. Sausheva & V.A. Gorin & E.S. Zemskova, 2016. "Innovation and Investment Safety as the Condition for Neo-Industrial Development," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3A), pages 94-109.
    4. M, Jisma & Mohan, Vivek & Thomas, Mini Shaji & Madhu M, Nimal, 2022. "Risk-Calibrated conventional-renewable generation mix using master-slave portfolio approach guided by flexible investor preferencing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    5. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2013. "Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 400-412.
    6. Sadeghi, Hadi & Rashidinejad, Masoud & Abdollahi, Amir, 2017. "A comprehensive sequential review study through the generation expansion planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1369-1394.
    7. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Martínez Fernandez, Paulino & Soares, Isabel, 2016. "Addressing 2030 EU policy framework for energy and climate: Cost, risk and energy security issues," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1347-1360.
    8. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Iglesias Antelo, Susana & Soares, Isabel, 2015. "The European low-carbon mix for 2030: The role of renewable energy sources in an environmentally and socially efficient approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 49-61.
    9. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2018. "Pollutant versus non-pollutant generation technologies: a CML-analogous analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 199-212, December.
    10. Pablo E. Carvajal & Gabrial Anandarajah & Yacob Mulugetta & Olivier Dessens, 2017. "Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 611-624, October.
    11. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Liu, Pei & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2015. "An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 865-888.
    12. Wei, Xinyang & Tong, Qing & Magill, Iain & Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & Betz, Regina, 2020. "Evaluation of potential co-benefits of air pollution control and climate mitigation policies for China's electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    14. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & Riesz, Jenny & MacGill, Iain, 2017. "Operational flexibility of future generation portfolios with high renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 32-41.
    15. Zheng, Yanan & Ren, Dongming & Guo, Zheyu & Hu, Zhaoguang & Wen, Quan, 2019. "Research on integrated resource strategic planning based on complex uncertainty simulation with case study of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 772-786.
    16. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Flores, Yarela, 2018. "Planning in a changing environment: Applications of portfolio optimisation to deal with risk in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3808-3823.
    17. Forouli, Aikaterini & Gkonis, Nikolaos & Nikas, Alexandros & Siskos, Eleftherios & Doukas, Haris & Tourkolias, Christos, 2019. "Energy efficiency promotion in Greece in light of risk: Evaluating policies as portfolio assets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 818-831.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Flores, Yarela, 2018. "Planning in a changing environment: Applications of portfolio optimisation to deal with risk in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3808-3823.
    2. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    3. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2018. "Pollutant versus non-pollutant generation technologies: a CML-analogous analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 199-212, December.
    4. Tietjen, Oliver & Pahle, Michael & Fuss, Sabine, 2016. "Investment risks in power generation: A comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-185.
    5. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    6. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2013. "Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 400-412.
    7. de-Llano Paz, Fernando & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Calvo Silvosa, Anxo & Soares, Isabel, 2014. "The technological and environmental efficiency of the EU-27 power mix: An evaluation based on MPT," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 67-81.
    8. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Iglesias Antelo, Susana & Soares, Isabel, 2015. "The European low-carbon mix for 2030: The role of renewable energy sources in an environmentally and socially efficient approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 49-61.
    9. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2019. "Assessing Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) Potential Using a CAPM-Analogous Multi-Stage Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    10. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Martínez Fernandez, Paulino & Soares, Isabel, 2016. "Addressing 2030 EU policy framework for energy and climate: Cost, risk and energy security issues," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1347-1360.
    11. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Chen, Ming-Ying, 2018. "Evaluating the dynamic performance of energy portfolios: Empirical evidence from the DEA directional distance function," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 64-78.
    12. Forouli, Aikaterini & Gkonis, Nikolaos & Nikas, Alexandros & Siskos, Eleftherios & Doukas, Haris & Tourkolias, Christos, 2019. "Energy efficiency promotion in Greece in light of risk: Evaluating policies as portfolio assets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 818-831.
    13. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2014. "Incorporating short-term operational plant constraints into assessments of future electricity generation portfolios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 144-155.
    14. Shahriari, Mehdi & Blumsack, Seth, 2018. "The capacity value of optimal wind and solar portfolios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 992-1005.
    15. De Jonghe, C. & Hobbs, B. F. & Belmans, R., 2011. "Integrating short-term demand response into long-term investment planning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1132, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Min, Daiki & Chung, Jaewoo, 2013. "Evaluation of the long-term power generation mix: The case study of South Korea's energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1544-1552.
    17. Inzunza, Andrés & Muñoz, Francisco D. & Moreno, Rodrigo, 2021. "Measuring the effects of environmental policies on electricity markets risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Negrete-Pincetic, Matías, 2018. "Portfolio applications in electricity markets review: Private investor and manager perspective trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 192-204.
    19. Dornan, Matthew & Jotzo, Frank, 2015. "Renewable technologies and risk mitigation in small island developing states: Fiji’s electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-48.
    20. Zhang, Shuang & Zhao, Tao & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2018. "What is the optimal power generation mix of China? An empirical analysis using portfolio theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 522-536.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:44:y:2012:i:1:p:1044-1058. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.