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Validated real-time energy models for small-scale grid-connected PV-systems

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  • Ayompe, L.M.
  • Duffy, A.
  • McCormack, S.J.
  • Conlon, M.

Abstract

This paper presents validated real-time energy models for small-scale grid-connected PV-systems suitable for domestic application. The models were used to predict real-time AC power output from a PV-system in Dublin, Ireland using 30-min intervals of measured performance data between April 2009 and March 2010. Statistical analysis of the predicted results and measured data highlight possible sources of errors and the limitations and/or adequacy of existing models, to describe the temperature and efficiency of PV-cells and consequently, the accuracy of power prediction models. PV-system AC output power predictions using empirical models for PV-cell temperature and efficiency prediction showed lower percentage mean absolute errors (PMAEs) of 7.9–11.7% while non-empirical models had errors of 10.0–12.4%. Cumulative errors for PV-system AC output power predictions were 1.3% for empirical models and 3.3% for non-empirical models. The proposed models are suitable for predicting PV-system AC output power at time intervals suitable for smart metering.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayompe, L.M. & Duffy, A. & McCormack, S.J. & Conlon, M., 2010. "Validated real-time energy models for small-scale grid-connected PV-systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4086-4091.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:10:p:4086-4091
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.06.021
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    8. Su, Yan & Chan, Lai-Cheong & Shu, Lianjie & Tsui, Kwok-Leung, 2012. "Real-time prediction models for output power and efficiency of grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 319-326.
    9. Alagoz, B.B. & Kaygusuz, A. & Karabiber, A., 2012. "A user-mode distributed energy management architecture for smart grid applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 167-177.
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    11. Rehman, Shafiqur & Ahmed, M.A. & Mohamed, Mohand H. & Al-Sulaiman, Fahad A., 2017. "Feasibility study of the grid connected 10MW installed capacity PV power plants in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 319-329.
    12. Edalati, Saeed & Ameri, Mehran & Iranmanesh, Masoud & Tarmahi, Hakimeh & Gholampour, Maysam, 2016. "Technical and economic assessments of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants: Iran case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 923-934.
    13. Hernandez, J. & Gordillo, G. & Vallejo, W., 2013. "Predicting the behavior of a grid-connected photovoltaic system from measurements of solar radiation and ambient temperature," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 527-537.
    14. Saber, Esmail M. & Lee, Siew Eang & Manthapuri, Sumanth & Yi, Wang & Deb, Chirag, 2014. "PV (photovoltaics) performance evaluation and simulation-based energy yield prediction for tropical buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 588-595.
    15. Kaygusuz, Asim, 2019. "Closed loop elastic demand control by dynamic energy pricing in smart grids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 596-603.
    16. Ramadan J. Mustafa & Mohamed R. Gomaa & Mujahed Al-Dhaifallah & Hegazy Rezk, 2020. "Environmental Impacts on the Performance of Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    17. Al-Sabounchi, Ammar M. & Yalyali, Saeed A. & Al-Thani, Hamda A., 2013. "Design and performance evaluation of a photovoltaic grid-connected system in hot weather conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 71-78.
    18. Copper, J.K. & Sproul, A.B. & Jarnason, S., 2016. "Photovoltaic (PV) performance modelling in the absence of onsite measured plane of array irradiance (POA) and module temperature," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 760-769.
    19. Ayompe, L.M. & Duffy, A., 2013. "Feed-in tariff design for domestic scale grid-connected PV systems using high resolution household electricity demand data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 619-627.

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