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Readiness assessment of sustainable energy technologies transition pathway: A probabilistic techno-commercial feasibility framework-based dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen, Hai-Tra
  • Somu, Nivethitha
  • Basant Kumar Pillai, B.
  • Khor, Jun Onn
  • Devihosur, Shiddalingeshwar C.
  • Ding, Ovi Lian
  • Viswanathan, S.

Abstract

As countries across both OECD and non-OECD regions are adopting low-carbon technologies to meet growing electricity demand and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, there is a need for robust evaluation tools to guide energy transition strategies. This study presents an integrated framework that combines hybrid dynamic multi-criteria decision-making (d-MCDM), techno-commercial readiness (TCR) assessment, and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to support strategic energy transition planning. The novelty lies in the d-MCDM approach, which fuses expert insights with empirical data through iterative cognitive pairwise comparisons, thereby reducing subjectivity while enabling structured evaluation of alternative technologies across key socio-economic-environmental (SEE) dimensions. To address uncertainties in projected demand growth and annual energy loss, MCS is applied, facilitating sensitivity analysis that enhances the reliability of planning under future energy transition scenarios. The TCR metric, integrating technology readiness level (TRL) and commercial readiness index (CRI) provides a unified indicator of both technological maturity and market feasibility. The feasibility of the proposed framework was validated using a case study on Singapore's electricity market, evaluating the country's pathway from high-carbon to low-carbon technologies and logistics. Key findings include: (i) role of natural gas and solar energy in ensuring system stability, (ii) importance of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems and batteries for secure energy imports, and (iii) emerging significance of hydrogen and carbon capture technologies. By integrating dynamic decision-making, readiness assessment, and uncertainty quantification, this framework serves as a robust and scalable tool to guide policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders in shaping resilient and sustainable energy transition pathways globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Hai-Tra & Somu, Nivethitha & Basant Kumar Pillai, B. & Khor, Jun Onn & Devihosur, Shiddalingeshwar C. & Ding, Ovi Lian & Viswanathan, S., 2026. "Readiness assessment of sustainable energy technologies transition pathway: A probabilistic techno-commercial feasibility framework-based dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:344:y:2026:i:c:s0360544226001672
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2026.140065
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