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A spatial aggregation-based chronological production simulation model for the decarbonization pathway analysis of provincial power system

Author

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  • Ba, Shiyu
  • Hao, Junhong
  • Zhou, Jiahan
  • Shao, Chong
  • Cao, Jing
  • Liu, Hongtao
  • Yang, Yongping

Abstract

Against the backdrop of accelerating global carbon neutrality goals, the power system, as a core sector of carbon emissions, faces the critical challenge of precisely planning its low-carbon transition pathway at the provincial level. This study focuses on the chronological production simulation and carbon emission flow calculation methods for provincial power systems, developing a bi-level chronological production simulation model incorporating carbon emission flow computation. The model is validated and analyzed using a case study of Gansu Province, China. Verified with actual data, the maximum relative error of all key indicators does not exceed 4.22 %, confirming the model's reliability and rationality. Furthermore, a multi-scenario analysis is conducted for the planning period of 2026–2030, revealing several operational characteristics: a notable trend of renewable energy replacing thermal power, the critical role of energy storage configuration in the transition, and the continued importance of thermal power in ensuring energy security. Through carbon emission flow analysis, the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of provincial carbon emissions are elucidated, uncovering the carbon reduction potential of various mitigation measures. These include inter-temporal load shifting (with a maximum reduction of 85.54 %), optimized energy storage configuration (a reduction of 45.9 %), and reducing thermal power output in high-carbon areas (a reduction of 14.21 %). The results demonstrate that the model can effectively support the planning of low-carbon transition pathways for provincial power systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Ba, Shiyu & Hao, Junhong & Zhou, Jiahan & Shao, Chong & Cao, Jing & Liu, Hongtao & Yang, Yongping, 2026. "A spatial aggregation-based chronological production simulation model for the decarbonization pathway analysis of provincial power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:342:y:2026:i:c:s0360544225054118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.139768
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