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Extraction and application of intrinsic predictable component in day-ahead power prediction for wind farm cluster

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  • Yang, Mao
  • Jiang, Renxian
  • Yu, Xinnan
  • Wang, Bo
  • Su, Xin
  • Ma, Chenglian

Abstract

With the continuous updating and iteration of artificial intelligence algorithms, prediction models emerge one after another, but the research and utilization of the predictability of wind power is still less. Therefore, this paper proposed a day-ahead power prediction method for Wind Farm Cluster (WFC) based on intrinsic predictable component extraction. Firstly, based on the difference of power distribution between wind farm and WFC, a method of Wind Power Curve (WPC) modeling for WFC is proposed, which provides the basis for establishing the Final Set of Wind Power Curve (FSWPC). Secondly, the Intrinsic Predictable Component (IPC) of wind power is extracted based on the FSWPC, and the Interference Component (IC) of wind power is separated to eliminate the influence of IC on IPC in the process of prediction. Thirdly, the historical similarity matching method with large threshold is used to predict the IC to make up for the numerical deficiency of the IPC. Finally, the proposed method was applied to a WFC in China to verify its effectiveness. Compared with the traditional prediction strategy, the NRMSE, NMAE and MAPE are reduced by 1.59 %, 1.15 % and 6.42 %, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Mao & Jiang, Renxian & Yu, Xinnan & Wang, Bo & Su, Xin & Ma, Chenglian, 2025. "Extraction and application of intrinsic predictable component in day-ahead power prediction for wind farm cluster," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225021723
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136530
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