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Analysis of the evolution path of new energy system under polymorphic uncertainty—A case study of China

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  • Fang, Guochang
  • Meng, Aoxiang
  • Wang, Qingling
  • Zhou, Huixin
  • Tian, Lixin

Abstract

The exploration and promotion of new energy constitute a significant initiative for numerous countries in their pursuit of sustainable development and efforts to alleviate climate change. However, the influence of a multitude of uncertain factors on the evolutionary path of new energy is currently poorly studied. By establishing a dynamic evolution model for new energy under polymorphic uncertainty, this paper analyses the complex interaction between new energy, economic growth, and carbon trading over the period 2020–2060, using China as a case study. We employ numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis to investigate the evolutionary trajectories of the new energy system under various parameter value scenarios. We show that the evolutionary trajectories will undergo substantial fluctuations before 2030, subsequently stabilizing from 2030 onwards. The study highlights that an excessively rapid pace of new energy development is detrimental to new energy systems, whereas energy storage system deployment has the opposite effect. There exists a significant risk of the system collapsing as a result of slow new energy development, over-building energy storage facilities, or over-intervening in carbon trading. We also find that overdevelopment of energy storage system may have greater negative impacts on the economic system than underdevelopment.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Guochang & Meng, Aoxiang & Wang, Qingling & Zhou, Huixin & Tian, Lixin, 2024. "Analysis of the evolution path of new energy system under polymorphic uncertainty—A case study of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:300:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224013161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131543
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