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Chinese provincial energy consumption intensity prediction by the CGM(1,1)

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  • Zhao, Fei
  • Wang, Yuliang
  • Guo, Jianlong
  • Wu, Lifeng

Abstract

In the context of global warming, people are paying more attention to environmental protection and sustainable development. Energy consumption intensity reflects the level of sustainable development to a certain extent. As the “world factory” and the important energy consumption market, China has good research value. China has added the index of energy intensity in the 14th Five-Year Plan, and plans to achieve the goal of reducing energy intensity by 13.5% compared with 2020 by 2025. The composite cumulative grey model(CGM(1,1)) was used to predict the total energy consumption and GDP of 30 provinces and municipalities in China. Then, it can be determined whether they can achieve the target by calculating the energy consumption intensity by 2025. Subsequently, the applicability and accuracy of the model were also verified through multiple cases. The research suggests that 23 provinces and municipalities can achieve the goal of reducing energy intensity by 2025. Among them, Inner Mongolia experienced the largest decline, with a decrease of 57.99%. The research results can provide reference for relevant departments.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Fei & Wang, Yuliang & Guo, Jianlong & Wu, Lifeng, 2024. "Chinese provincial energy consumption intensity prediction by the CGM(1,1)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:292:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224003980
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130626
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