IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v115y2016ip2p1424-1435.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story

Author

Listed:
  • Portugal-Pereira, Joana
  • Köberle, Alexandre C.
  • Soria, Rafael
  • Lucena, André F.P.
  • Szklo, Alexandre
  • Schaeffer, Roberto

Abstract

This work evaluates implications of incorporating LCA-GHG (life cycle assessment of GHG emissions) into the optimisation of the power generation mix of Brazil through 2050, under baseline and low-carbon scenarios. Furthermore, this work assesses the impacts of enacting a tax on LCA-GHG emissions as a strategy to mitigate climate change. To this end, a model that integrates regional life cycle data with optimised energy scenarios was developed using the MESSAGE-Brazil integrated model. Following a baseline trend, the power sector in Brazil would increasingly rely on conventional coal technologies. GHG emissions from the power sector in 2050 are expected to increase 15-fold. When enacting a tax on direct-carbon emissions, advanced coal and onshore wind technologies become competitive. GHG emissions peak at 2025 and decrease afterwards, reaching an emission level 40% lower in 2050 than that of 2010. However, if impacts were evaluated through the entire life cycle of power supply systems, LCA-GHG emissions would be 50% higher in 2050 than in 2010. This is due to loads associated with the construction of plant infrastructures and extraction and processing of fossil fuel resources. Thus, taxes might not be as effective in tackling GHG emissions as shown by past studies, if they are only applied to direct emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Soria, Rafael & Lucena, André F.P. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2016. "Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1424-1435.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:115:y:2016:i:p2:p:1424-1435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216303061
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.062?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander T. Dale & André Frossard Pereira de Lucena & Joe Marriott & Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba & Roberto Schaeffer & Melissa M. Bilec, 2013. "Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(7), pages 1-27, July.
    2. Portugal Pereira, Joana & Troncoso Parady, Giancarlos & Castro Dominguez, Bernardo, 2014. "Japan's energy conundrum: Post-Fukushima scenarios from a life cycle perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 104-115.
    3. Soares M.C. Borba, Bruno & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2012. "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a way to maximize the integration of variable renewable energy in power systems: The case of wind generation in northeastern Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 469-481.
    4. Soria, Rafael & Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Szklo, Alexandre & Milani, Rodrigo & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2015. "Hybrid concentrated solar power (CSP)–biomass plants in a semiarid region: A strategy for CSP deployment in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 57-72.
    5. Moura, Maria Cecilia P. & Branco, David A. Castelo & Peters, Glen P. & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2013. "How the choice of multi-gas equivalency metrics affects mitigation options: The case of CO2 capture in a Brazilian coal-fired power plant," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1357-1366.
    6. Varun & Bhat, I.K. & Prakash, Ravi, 2009. "LCA of renewable energy for electricity generation systems--A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 1067-1073, June.
    7. Liden, R., 2013. "Greenhouse gases from reservoirs caused by biochemical processes: interim technical note," IWMI Working Papers H045826, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Malagueta, Diego & Szklo, Alexandre & Soria, Rafael & Dutra, Ricardo & Schaeffer, Roberto & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares, 2014. "Potential and impacts of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) integration in the Brazilian electric power system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 223-235.
    9. San Miguel, G. & Corona, B., 2014. "Hybridizing concentrated solar power (CSP) with biogas and biomethane as an alternative to natural gas: Analysis of environmental performance using LCA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 580-587.
    10. Fátima Lima & Joana Portugal‐Pereira & André F.P. Lucena & Pedro Rochedo & Jorge Cunha & Manuel Lopes Nunes & Alexandre Salem Szklo, 2015. "Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 0(3-4), pages 175-190, August.
    11. de Carvalho, Joaquim F. & Sauer, Ildo L., 2009. "Does Brazil need new nuclear power plants?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1580-1584, April.
    12. Castelo Branco, David A. & Moura, Maria Cecilia P. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2013. "Emissions reduction potential from CO2 capture: A life-cycle assessment of a Brazilian coal-fired power plant," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1221-1235.
    13. Rikard Liden, 2013. "Greenhouse Gases from Reservoirs Caused by Biochemical Processes : Interim Technical Note," World Bank Publications - Reports 16535, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chengzhou Li & Ningling Wang & Hongyuan Zhang & Qingxin Liu & Youguo Chai & Xiaohu Shen & Zhiping Yang & Yongping Yang, 2019. "Environmental Impact Evaluation of Distributed Renewable Energy System Based on Life Cycle Assessment and Fuzzy Rough Sets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Manzoor, Davood & Aryanpur, Vahid, 2017. "Power sector development in Iran: A retrospective optimization approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 330-339.
    3. Hans Christian Gils & Sonja Simon & Rafael Soria, 2017. "100% Renewable Energy Supply for Brazil—The Role of Sector Coupling and Regional Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    4. da Silva Neves, Marcus Vinicius & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2023. "Fossil fuel facilities exergy return for a frontier of analysis incorporating CO2 capture: The case of a coal power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    5. Joana Portugal-Pereira & Alexandre Koberle & André F. P. Lucena & Pedro R. R. Rochedo & Mariana Império & Ana Monteiro Carsalade & Roberto Schaeffer & Peter Rafaj, 2018. "Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 293-309, May.
    6. Paul Wolfram & Stephanie Weber & Kenneth Gillingham & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "Pricing indirect emissions accelerates low—carbon transition of US light vehicle sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Volkart, Kathrin & Weidmann, Nicolas & Bauer, Christian & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2017. "Multi-criteria decision analysis of energy system transformation pathways: A case study for Switzerland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 155-168.
    8. Alexandre C. Köberle & Pedro R. R. Rochedo & André F. P. Lucena & Alexandre Szklo & Roberto Schaeffer, 2020. "Brazil’s emission trajectories in a well-below 2 °C world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1823-1842, October.
    9. Miranda, Raul & Simoes, Sofia & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2019. "Adding detailed transmission constraints to a long-term integrated assessment model – A case study for Brazil using the TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 791-803.
    10. Ramirez, Angel D. & Rivela, Beatriz & Boero, Andrea & Melendres, Ana M., 2019. "Lights and shadows of the environmental impacts of fossil-based electricity generation technologies: A contribution based on the Ecuadorian experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 467-477.
    11. Köberle, Alexandre C. & Garaffa, Rafael & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Rochedo, Pedro & Lucena, André F.P. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2018. "Are conventional energy megaprojects competitive? Suboptimal decisions related to cost overruns in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 689-700.
    12. Tobias Junne & Karl-Kiên Cao & Kim Kira Miskiw & Heidi Hottenroth & Tobias Naegler, 2021. "Considering Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Power System Expansion Planning for Europe and North Africa Using Multi-Objective Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-26, February.
    13. Lucena, André F.P. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline & Turner, Sean & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Kober, Tom & Cai, Yongxia & Beach, Robert H. & Gernaat,, 2018. "Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1161-1177.
    14. Ramirez, A.D. & Boero, A. & Rivela, B. & Melendres, A.M. & Espinoza, S. & Salas, D.A., 2020. "Life cycle methods to analyze the environmental sustainability of electricity generation in Ecuador: Is decarbonization the right path?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Barbosa, Juliana & Dias, Luís P. & Simoes, Sofia G. & Seixas, Júlia, 2020. "When is the sun going to shine for the Brazilian energy sector? A story of how modelling affects solar electricity," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1684-1702.
    16. Louis, Jean-Nicolas & Allard, Stéphane & Debusschere, Vincent & Mima, Silvana & Tran-Quoc, Tuan & Hadjsaid, Nouredine, 2018. "Environmental impact indicators for the electricity mix and network development planning towards 2050 – A POLES and EUTGRID model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 618-628.
    17. Dranka, Géremi Gilson & Ferreira, Paula, 2018. "Planning for a renewable future in the Brazilian power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 496-511.
    18. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    19. Blanco, Herib & Codina, Victor & Laurent, Alexis & Nijs, Wouter & Maréchal, François & Faaij, André, 2020. "Life cycle assessment integration into energy system models: An application for Power-to-Methane in the EU," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    20. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Fragkiadakis, Kostas & Paroussos, Leonidas & Pierfederici, Roberta & Vishwanathan, Saritha S. & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Iyer, Gokul & He, Chen-Min & Oshiro, Ken, 2018. "Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 462-473.
    21. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Laura van Soest, Heleen & Schaeffer, Roberto & Reedman, Luke & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Macaluso, Nick & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & De Vita, Alessia & Sha, Fu & Qimin, Chai & Kej, 2021. "Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucena, André F.P. & Clarke, Leon & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Nogueira, Larissa P.P. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Gurgel, Angelo & Kitous, Alban & Kober, Tom, 2016. "Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 564-574.
    2. Fichter, Tobias & Soria, Rafael & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto & Lucena, Andre F.P., 2017. "Assessing the potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) for the northeast power system of Brazil using a detailed power system model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 695-715.
    3. Hoz, Jordi de la & Martín, Helena & Montalà, Montserrat & Matas, José & Guzman, Ramon, 2018. "Assessing the 2014 retroactive regulatory framework applied to the concentrating solar power systems in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1377-1399.
    4. Sonja Simon & Tobias Naegler & Hans Christian Gils, 2018. "Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-26, April.
    5. Soria, Rafael & Lucena, André F.P. & Tomaschek, Jan & Fichter, Tobias & Haasz, Thomas & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto & Rochedo, Pedro & Fahl, Ulrich & Kern, Jürgen, 2016. "Modelling concentrated solar power (CSP) in the Brazilian energy system: A soft-linked model coupling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 265-280.
    6. Fátima Lima & Joana Portugal‐Pereira & André F.P. Lucena & Pedro Rochedo & Jorge Cunha & Manuel Lopes Nunes & Alexandre Salem Szklo, 2015. "Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(3-4), pages 175-190, August.
    7. Joana Portugal-Pereira & Alexandre Koberle & André F. P. Lucena & Pedro R. R. Rochedo & Mariana Império & Ana Monteiro Carsalade & Roberto Schaeffer & Peter Rafaj, 2018. "Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 293-309, May.
    8. Miranda, Raul & Simoes, Sofia & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2019. "Adding detailed transmission constraints to a long-term integrated assessment model – A case study for Brazil using the TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 791-803.
    9. Portugal-Pereira, J. & Ferreira, P. & Cunha, J. & Szklo, A. & Schaeffer, R. & Araújo, M., 2018. "Better late than never, but never late is better: Risk assessment of nuclear power construction projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 158-166.
    10. Vieira de Souza, Luiz Enrique & Gilmanova Cavalcante, Alina Mikhailovna, 2017. "Concentrated Solar Power deployment in emerging economies: The cases of China and Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1094-1103.
    11. da Silva Neves, Marcus Vinicius & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2023. "Fossil fuel facilities exergy return for a frontier of analysis incorporating CO2 capture: The case of a coal power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    12. Busola D. Akintayo & Oluwafemi E. Ige & Olubayo M. Babatunde & Oludolapo A. Olanrewaju, 2023. "Evaluation and Prioritization of Power-Generating Systems Using a Life Cycle Assessment and a Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-18, September.
    13. Thomson, Heather & Corbett, James J. & Winebrake, James J., 2015. "Natural gas as a marine fuel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 153-167.
    14. Federica Cucchiella & Idiano D’Adamo & Paolo Rosa, 2015. "Industrial Photovoltaic Systems: An Economic Analysis in Non-Subsidized Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    15. Zhang, Qi & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Ishihara, Keiichi N., 2013. "A methodology for economic and environmental analysis of electric vehicles with different operational conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 118-127.
    16. Igos, Elorri & Rugani, Benedetto & Rege, Sameer & Benetto, Enrico & Drouet, Laurent & Zachary, Daniel S., 2015. "Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 234-245.
    17. Carnevale, E. & Lombardi, L. & Zanchi, L., 2014. "Life Cycle Assessment of solar energy systems: Comparison of photovoltaic and water thermal heater at domestic scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 434-446.
    18. Emblemsvåg, Jan, 2022. "Wind energy is not sustainable when balanced by fossil energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    19. Mostafa Shaaban & Jürgen Scheffran & Jürgen Böhner & Mohamed S. Elsobki, 2018. "Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, May.
    20. Zhihua Zhang, 2015. "Techno-Economic Assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage Facilities Coupled to Coal-Fired Power Plants," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(6-7), pages 1069-1080, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:115:y:2016:i:p2:p:1424-1435. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.