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On practical challenges of decomposition-based hybrid forecasting algorithms for wind speed and solar irradiation

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  • Wang, Yamin
  • Wu, Lei

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis on practical challenges of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based algorithms on wind speed and solar irradiation forecasts that have been largely neglected in literature, and proposes an alternative approach to mitigate such challenges. Specifically, the challenges are: (1) Decomposed sub-series are very sensitive to the original time series data. That is, sub-series of the new time series, consisting of the original one plus a limit number of new data samples, may significantly differ from those used in training forecasting models. In turn, forecasting models established by original sub-series may not be suitable for newly decomposed sub-series and have to be trained more frequently; and (2) Key environmental factors usually play a critical role in non-decomposition based methods for forecasting wind speed and solar irradiation. However, it is difficult to incorporate such critical environmental factors into forecasting models of individual decomposed sub-series, because the correlation between the original data and environmental factors is lost after decomposition. Numerical case studies on wind speed and solar irradiation forecasting show that the performance of existing EMD-based forecasting methods could be worse than the non-decomposition based forecasting model, and are not effective in practical cases. Finally, the approximated forecasting model based on EMD is proposed to mitigate the challenges and achieve better forecasting results than existing EMD-based forecasting algorithms and the non-decomposition based forecasting models on practical wind speed and solar irradiation forecasting cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yamin & Wu, Lei, 2016. "On practical challenges of decomposition-based hybrid forecasting algorithms for wind speed and solar irradiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 208-220.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:112:y:2016:i:c:p:208-220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.06.075
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guo, Zhenhai & Zhao, Weigang & Lu, Haiyan & Wang, Jianzhou, 2012. "Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 241-249.
    2. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "A hybrid model for wind speed prediction using empirical mode decomposition and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 545-556.
    3. Zhang, Xun & Lai, K.K. & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2008. "A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on Empirical Mode Decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 905-918, May.
    4. Zhang, Chi & Wei, Haikun & Zhao, Junsheng & Liu, Tianhong & Zhu, Tingting & Zhang, Kanjian, 2016. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and feature selection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 727-737.
    5. Cao, J.C. & Cao, S.H., 2006. "Study of forecasting solar irradiance using neural networks with preprocessing sample data by wavelet analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 3435-3445.
    6. Wang, Shouxiang & Zhang, Na & Wu, Lei & Wang, Yamin, 2016. "Wind speed forecasting based on the hybrid ensemble empirical mode decomposition and GA-BP neural network method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 629-636.
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    1. repec:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:7:p:1752-:d:156128 is not listed on IDEAS

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