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A cascaded deep learning wind power prediction approach based on a two-layer of mode decomposition

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  • Yin, Hao
  • Ou, Zuhong
  • Huang, Shengquan
  • Meng, Anbo

Abstract

Wind power forecasting is crucial for the economic dispatch and operation of power system. In this study, a novel hybrid wind power prediction approach is proposed by applying a cascaded deep learning model to extract the implicit meteorological and temporal characteristics of each subseries generated by a two-layer of mode decomposition method. In the proposed model, the empirical mode decomposition is employed to decompose the original time series into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and the variational mode decomposition is applied to further decompose the IMF1 sub-layers into several sub-series because of the irregular feature of IMF1. To make use of the coupling relationship between wind power sub-layer, wind speed sub-layer and wind direction, convolutional neural network is used to extract the implicit features of these relationship and then long short-term memory utilizes these features as inputs and further extract the temporal correlation hidden features in each time sub-series. The eventual predicted results are obtained by superimposing the predicted values of all subsequences. The experimental results illustrate that: (a) The prediction performance is obviously improved when the proposed two-layer of decomposition is considered. (b) To achieve better prediction accuracy, it is proven to be an effective way to apply convolutional neural network and long short-term memory to extract the implicit meteorological relationship and the temporal correlation characteristic hidden in each decomposed time sub-series, respectively. (c) The proposed hybrid model outperforms other hybrid models involved in this study and shows a promising prospect in the short-term wind power prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin, Hao & Ou, Zuhong & Huang, Shengquan & Meng, Anbo, 2019. "A cascaded deep learning wind power prediction approach based on a two-layer of mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:189:y:2019:i:c:s0360544219320110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.116316
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    9. Mohammed A. A. Al-qaness & Ahmed A. Ewees & Mohamed Abd Elaziz & Ahmed H. Samak, 2022. "Wind Power Forecasting Using Optimized Dendritic Neural Model Based on Seagull Optimization Algorithm and Aquila Optimizer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-14, December.
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    13. Paweł Piotrowski & Inajara Rutyna & Dariusz Baczyński & Marcin Kopyt, 2022. "Evaluation Metrics for Wind Power Forecasts: A Comprehensive Review and Statistical Analysis of Errors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-38, December.
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    16. Ghadah Alkhayat & Syed Hamid Hasan & Rashid Mehmood, 2023. "A Hybrid Model of Variational Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory for Next-Hour Wind Speed Forecasting in a Hot Desert Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-39, December.
    17. Meng, Anbo & Zhu, Zibin & Deng, Weisi & Ou, Zuhong & Lin, Shan & Wang, Chenen & Xu, Xuancong & Wang, Xiaolin & Yin, Hao & Luo, Jianqiang, 2022. "A novel wind power prediction approach using multivariate variational mode decomposition and multi-objective crisscross optimization based deep extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    18. Suo Li & Ling-ling Huang & Yang Liu & Meng-yao Zhang, 2021. "Modeling of Ultra-Short Term Offshore Wind Power Prediction Based on Condition-Assessment of Wind Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, February.

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