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An analysis of Australia's large scale renewable energy target: Restoring market confidence

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  • Nelson, Tim
  • Nelson, James
  • Ariyaratnam, Jude
  • Camroux, Simon

Abstract

In 2001, Australia introduced legislation requiring investment in new renewable electricity generating capacity. The legislation was significantly expanded in 2009 to give effect to a 20% Renewable Energy Target (RET). Importantly, the policy was introduced with bipartisan support and is consistent with global policy trends. In this article, we examine the history of the policy and establish that the ‘stop/start’ nature of renewable policy development has resulted in investors withholding new capital until greater certainty is provided. We utilise the methodology from Simshauser and Nelson (2012) to examine whether capital market efficiency losses would occur under certain policy scenarios. The results show that electricity costs would increase by between $51 million and $119 million if the large-scale RET is abandoned even after accounting for avoided renewable costs. Our conclusions are clear: we find that policymakers should be guided by a high level public policy principle in relation to large-scale renewable energy policy: constant review is not reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson, Tim & Nelson, James & Ariyaratnam, Jude & Camroux, Simon, 2013. "An analysis of Australia's large scale renewable energy target: Restoring market confidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 386-400.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:386-400
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.096
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tim Nelson & Paul Simshauser & Simon Kelley, 2011. "Australian Residential Solar Feed-in Tariffs: Industry Stimulus or Regressive Form of Taxation?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 113-129, September.
    2. Nelson, James & Simshauser, Paul, 2013. "Is the Merchant Power Producer a broken model?☆☆The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and any errors or omissions remain the responsibility of the authors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 298-310.
    3. Paul Simshauser, 2011. "The Hidden Costs of Wind Generation in a Thermal Power System: What Cost?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 44(3), pages 269-292, September.
    4. Simshauser, Paul, 2010. "Resource Adequacy, Capital Adequacy and Investment Uncertainty in the Australian Power Market," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-84, January.
    5. Paul Simshauser & Phillip Wild, 2009. "The Western Australian Power Dilemma," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 342-369, December.
    6. Tim Nelson & Paul Simshauser & James Nelson, 2012. "Queensland solar feed-in tariffs and the merit-order effect: economic benefit, or regressive taxation and wealth transfers?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 277-301, December.
    7. Simshauser, Paul, 2010. "Vertical integration, credit ratings and retail price settings in energy-only markets: Navigating the Resource Adequacy problem," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7427-7441, November.
    8. Simshauser, Paul & Nelson, Tim & Doan, Thao, 0. "The Boomerang Paradox, Part I: How a Nation's Wealth Is Creating Fuel Poverty," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 72-91, January.
    9. Nelson, Tim & Kelley, Simon & Orton, Fiona, 2012. "A literature review of economic studies on carbon pricing and Australian wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 217-224.
    10. Tim Nelson & Simon Kelley & Fiona Orton & Paul Simshauser, 2010. "Delayed Carbon Policy Certainty and Electricity Prices in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 29(4), pages 446-465, December.
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