An empirical study of the information premium on electricity markets
Due to the non-storability of electricity and the resulting lack of arbitrage-based arguments to price electricity forward contracts, a significant time-varying risk premium is exhibited. Using EEX data during the introduction of emission certificates and the German “Atom Moratorium” we show that a significant part of the risk premium in electricity forwards is due to different information sets in spot and forward markets. In order to show the existence of the resulting information premium and to analyse its size we design an empirical method based on techniques relating to enlargement of filtrations and the structure of Hilbert spaces.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
- S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
- Benth, Fred Espen & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna, 2012. "A critical empirical study of three electricity spot price models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1589-1616.
- Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Peter Tankov, 2008. "Multi-Factor Jump-Diffusion Models Of Electricity Prices," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 503-528.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo G. Figueroa & Helyette Geman, 2008.
"Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0802, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa & Helyette Geman, 2009. "Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 103-122.
- Julia Popova & Stratford Douglas, 2006.
"Storage and the Electricity Forward Premium,"
06-16 Classification-, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Furió, Dolores & Meneu, Vicente, 2010. "Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 784-793, February.
- Fred Espen Benth & Jan Kallsen & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2007. "A Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Derivatives Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 153-169.
- Fred Espen Benth & Alvaro Cartea & Ruediger Kiesel, 2006.
"Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0611, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
- Diko Pavel & Lawford Steve & Limpens Valerie, 2006. "Risk Premia in Electricity Forward Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
- Kolos, Sergey P. & Ronn, Ehud I., 2008. "Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 621-641, March.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, 08.
- Lucia, Julio J. & Torró, Hipòlit, 2011. "On the risk premium in Nordic electricity futures prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 750-763, October.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:55-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.