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System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis

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  • Powell, J.H.
  • Mustafee, N.
  • Chen, A.S.
  • Hammond, M.

Abstract

Current approaches to risk management stress the need for dynamic (i.e. continuous, ongoing) approaches to risk identification as part of a planned resource application aimed at reducing the expected consequences of undesired outcomes for the object of the assessment. We contend that these approaches place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of three factors, namely the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents and the knowledge availability to those agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Powell, J.H. & Mustafee, N. & Chen, A.S. & Hammond, M., 2016. "System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 550-564.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:254:y:2016:i:2:p:550-564
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.04.037
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    2. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos & Fotios Petropoulos & Vasco Sanchez Rodrigues & Stephen Pettit & Anthony Beresford, 2019. "A risk-mitigation model driven from the level of forecastability of Black Swans: prepare and respond to major Earthquakes through a dynamic Temporal and Spatial Aggregation forecasting framework," Working Papers 19017, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
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    4. Zhongzhen Yang & Liquan Guo & Zaili Yang, 2019. "Emergency logistics for wildfire suppression based on forecasted disaster evolution," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 917-937, December.
    5. Wencheng Huang & Yueyang Li & Xingyi Kou & Wenzhe Wang & Yifei Xu, 2021. "Using a FMEA–TIFIAD Approach to Identify the Risk of Railway Dangerous Goods Transportation System," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-95, February.
    6. J H Powell & N Mustafee, 2017. "Widening requirements capture with soft methods: an investigation of hybrid M&S studies in health care," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(10), pages 1211-1222, October.
    7. John Hamer Powell & Michael Hammond & Albert Chen & Navonil Mustafee, 2018. "Human Agency in Disaster Planning: A Systems Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1422-1443, July.
    8. Katharina Proswitz & Mamkwe Claudia Edward & Mariele Evers & Felister Mombo & Alexander Mpwaga & Kristian Näschen & Jennifer Sesabo & Britta Höllermann, 2021. "Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-27, June.
    9. Doan, Xuan Vinh & Shaw, Duncan, 2019. "Resource allocation when planning for simultaneous disasters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 687-709.
    10. Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Pettit, Stephen & Beresford, Anthony, 2022. "A disaster response model driven by spatial–temporal forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1214-1220.
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