IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v227y2013i2p314-324.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment models based on clustered scenario trees

Author

Listed:
  • Wong, Man Hong

Abstract

Stochastic programming is widely applied in financial decision problems. In particular, when we need to carry out the actual calculations for portfolio selection problems, we have to assign a value for each expected return and the associated conditional probability in advance. These estimated random parameters often rely on a scenario tree representing the distribution of the underlying asset returns. One of the drawbacks is that the estimated parameters may be deviated from the actual ones. Therefore, robustness is considered so as to cope with the issue of parameter inaccuracy. In view of this, we propose a clustered scenario-tree approach, which accommodates the parameter inaccuracy problem in the context of a scenario tree.

Suggested Citation

  • Wong, Man Hong, 2013. "Investment models based on clustered scenario trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 314-324.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:227:y:2013:i:2:p:314-324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.11.051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221712009034
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.11.051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tietje, Olaf, 2005. "Identification of a small reliable and efficient set of consistent scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 418-432, April.
    2. Siegfried Schaible, 1976. "Fractional Programming. I, Duality," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(8), pages 858-867, April.
    3. Zymler, Steve & Rustem, Berç & Kuhn, Daniel, 2011. "Robust portfolio optimization with derivative insurance guarantees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 410-424, April.
    4. Liu, Baoding & Iwamura, Kakuzo, 1997. "Modelling stochastic decision systems using dependent-chance programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 193-203, August.
    5. Joshi, Rajani R., 1995. "A new approach to stochastic programming problems: Discrete model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 514-529, June.
    6. Castro, Jordi, 2009. "A stochastic programming approach to cash management in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(3), pages 963-974, February.
    7. Randall S. Hiller & Jonathan Eckstein, 1993. "Stochastic Dedication: Designing Fixed Income Portfolios Using Massively Parallel Benders Decomposition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(11), pages 1422-1438, November.
    8. Mulvey, John M. & Rosenbaum, Daniel P. & Shetty, Bala, 1999. "Parameter estimation in stochastic scenario generation systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 563-577, November.
    9. Latorre, Jesus M & Cerisola, Santiago & Ramos, Andres, 2007. "Clustering algorithms for scenario tree generation: Application to natural hydro inflows," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1339-1353, September.
    10. Kouwenberg, Roy, 2001. "Scenario generation and stochastic programming models for asset liability management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 279-292, October.
    11. Geyer, Alois & Hanke, Michael & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2010. "No-arbitrage conditions, scenario trees, and multi-asset financial optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 609-613, November.
    12. A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper & G. H. Symonds, 1958. "Cost Horizons and Certainty Equivalents: An Approach to Stochastic Programming of Heating Oil," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 235-263, April.
    13. Zenios, Stavros A., 2003. "High-performance computing for financial planning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 907-908, April.
    14. Shapiro, Alexander, 2011. "Analysis of stochastic dual dynamic programming method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 63-72, February.
    15. C. van de Panne & W. Popp, 1963. "Minimum-Cost Cattle Feed Under Probabilistic Protein Constraints," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 405-430, April.
    16. Huang, Dashan & Zhu, Shushang & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Fukushima, Masao, 2010. "Portfolio selection under distributional uncertainty: A relative robust CVaR approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 185-194, May.
    17. Gulpinar, Nalan & Rustem, Berc, 2007. "Worst-case robust decisions for multi-period mean-variance portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 981-1000, December.
    18. Shen, Ruijun & Zhang, Shuzhong, 2008. "Robust portfolio selection based on a multi-stage scenario tree," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(3), pages 864-887, December.
    19. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Abstract: Capital Market Equilibrium in a Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 635-635, November.
    20. A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1959. "Chance-Constrained Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 73-79, October.
    21. Lutgens, F. & Sturm, J.F., 2002. "Robust One Period Option Modelling," Other publications TiSEM a5d55d83-4751-461f-8114-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. Gabriel, Steven A. & Zhuang, Jifang & Egging, Ruud, 2009. "Solving stochastic complementarity problems in energy market modeling using scenario reduction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(3), pages 1028-1040, September.
    23. Topaloglou, Nikolas & Vladimirou, Hercules & Zenios, Stavros A., 2008. "A dynamic stochastic programming model for international portfolio management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1501-1524, March.
    24. Kjetil Høyland & Stein W. Wallace, 2001. "Generating Scenario Trees for Multistage Decision Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 295-307, February.
    25. Harlow, W. V. & Rao, Ramesh K. S., 1989. "Asset Pricing in a Generalized Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 285-311, September.
    26. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Capital market equilibrium in a mean-lower partial moment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 189-200, November.
    27. Grootveld, Henk & Hallerbach, Winfried, 1999. "Variance vs downside risk: Is there really that much difference?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 304-319, April.
    28. Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2012. "Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 162-172.
    29. Dupacova, Jitka, 2002. "Applications of stochastic programming: Achievements and questions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 281-290, July.
    30. Siegfried Schaible, 1976. "Fractional Programming. II, On Dinkelbach's Algorithm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(8), pages 868-873, April.
    31. Gregory, Christine & Darby-Dowman, Ken & Mitra, Gautam, 2011. "Robust optimization and portfolio selection: The cost of robustness," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 417-428, July.
    32. Bertil Naslund & Andrew Whinston, 1962. "A Model of Multi-Period Investment under Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 184-200, January.
    33. A. Ben-Tal & A. Nemirovski, 1998. "Robust Convex Optimization," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 769-805, November.
    34. D. Goldfarb & G. Iyengar, 2003. "Robust Portfolio Selection Problems," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 1-38, February.
    35. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    36. Werner Dinkelbach, 1967. "On Nonlinear Fractional Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(7), pages 492-498, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Panos Xidonas & Ralph Steuer & Christis Hassapis, 2020. "Robust portfolio optimization: a categorized bibliographic review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 533-552, September.
    2. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    3. Alireza Ghahtarani & Ahmed Saif & Alireza Ghasemi, 2022. "Robust portfolio selection problems: a comprehensive review," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3203-3264, September.
    4. Ling, Aifan & Sun, Jie & Wang, Meihua, 2020. "Robust multi-period portfolio selection based on downside risk with asymmetrically distributed uncertainty set," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 81-95.
    5. Alireza Ghahtarani & Ahmed Saif & Alireza Ghasemi, 2021. "Robust Portfolio Selection Problems: A Comprehensive Review," Papers 2103.13806, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Huang, Dashan & Zhu, Shushang & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Fukushima, Masao, 2010. "Portfolio selection under distributional uncertainty: A relative robust CVaR approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 185-194, May.
    7. Robert Jarrow & Feng Zhao, 2006. "Downside Loss Aversion and Portfolio Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 558-566, April.
    8. Shushang Zhu & Duan Li & Shouyang Wang, 2009. "Robust portfolio selection under downside risk measures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 869-885.
    9. Fonseca, Raquel J. & Rustem, Berç, 2012. "International portfolio management with affine policies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 177-187.
    10. Marla, Lavanya & Rikun, Alexander & Stauffer, Gautier & Pratsini, Eleni, 2020. "Robust modeling and planning: Insights from three industrial applications," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 7(C).
    11. Bakker, Hannah & Dunke, Fabian & Nickel, Stefan, 2020. "A structuring review on multi-stage optimization under uncertainty: Aligning concepts from theory and practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Jang Ho Kim & Woo Chang Kim & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2014. "Recent Developments in Robust Portfolios with a Worst-Case Approach," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 103-121, April.
    13. Fulga, Cristinca, 2016. "Portfolio optimization under loss aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(1), pages 310-322.
    14. Ling, Aifan & Sun, Jie & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2014. "Robust tracking error portfolio selection with worst-case downside risk measures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 178-207.
    15. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    16. Benati, S. & Conde, E., 2022. "A relative robust approach on expected returns with bounded CVaR for portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 332-352.
    17. L. Jeff Hong & Zhiyuan Huang & Henry Lam, 2021. "Learning-Based Robust Optimization: Procedures and Statistical Guarantees," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3447-3467, June.
    18. Davi Valladão & Thuener Silva & Marcus Poggi, 2019. "Time-consistent risk-constrained dynamic portfolio optimization with transactional costs and time-dependent returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 379-405, November.
    19. Ayub, Usman & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali & Abbas, Qaisar, 2015. "Robust analysis for downside risk in portfolio management for a volatile stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 86-96.
    20. Cumova, Denisa & Nawrocki, David, 2011. "A symmetric LPM model for heuristic mean-semivariance analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 217-236, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:227:y:2013:i:2:p:314-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.