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Robust risk management

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  • Fertis, Apostolos
  • Baes, Michel
  • Lüthi, Hans-Jakob

Abstract

Estimating the probabilities by which different events might occur is usually a delicate task, subject to many sources of inaccuracies. Moreover, these probabilities can change over time, leading to a very difficult evaluation of the risk induced by any particular decision. Given a set of probability measures and a set of nominal risk measures, we define in this paper the concept of robust risk measure as the worst possible of our risks when each of our probability measures is likely to occur. We study how some properties of this new object can be related with those of our nominal risk measures, such as convexity or coherence. We introduce a robust version of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and of entropy-based risk measures. We show how to compute and optimize the Robust CVaR using convex duality methods and illustrate its behavior using data from the New York Stock Exchange and from the NASDAQ between 2005 and 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Fertis, Apostolos & Baes, Michel & Lüthi, Hans-Jakob, 2012. "Robust risk management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 663-672.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:222:y:2012:i:3:p:663-672
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.03.036
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    3. Postek, K.S. & den Hertog, D. & Melenberg, B., 2014. "Tractable Counterparts of Distributionally Robust Constraints on Risk Measures," Other publications TiSEM c3a1df3e-f338-4989-806a-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Postek, K.S. & den Hertog, D. & Melenberg, B., 2014. "Tractable Counterparts of Distributionally Robust Constraints on Risk Measures," Discussion Paper 2014-031, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Gabrel, Virginie & Murat, Cécile & Thiele, Aurélie, 2014. "Recent advances in robust optimization: An overview," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 471-483.
    6. Barrieu, Pauline & Scandolo, Giacomo, 2014. "Assessing financial model risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60084, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    8. Aven, Terje, 2016. "Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 1-13.
    9. Postek, K.S. & den Hertog, D. & Melenberg, B., 2015. "Computationally Tractable Counterparts of Distributionally Robust Constraints on Risk Measures (revision of CentER DP 2014-031)," Other publications TiSEM eeb9c898-6943-4199-b747-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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