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Assessing financial model risk

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  • Barrieu, Pauline
  • Scandolo, Giacomo

Abstract

Model risk has a huge impact on any risk measurement procedure and its quantification is therefore a crucial step. In this paper, we introduce three quantitative measures of model risk when choosing a particular reference model within a given class: the absolute measure of model risk, the relative measure of model risk and the local measure of model risk. Each of the measures has a specific purpose and so allows for flexibility. We illustrate the various notions by studying some relevant examples, so as to emphasize the practicability and tractability of our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrieu, Pauline & Scandolo, Giacomo, 2015. "Assessing financial model risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(2), pages 546-556.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:242:y:2015:i:2:p:546-556
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.10.032
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Fernanda Maria Muller & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2017. "On a robust risk measurement approach for capital determination errors minimization," Papers 1707.09829, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    2. Ballotta, Laura & Deelstra, Griselda & Rayée, Grégory, 2017. "Multivariate FX models with jumps: Triangles, Quantos and implied correlation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1181-1199.
    3. Valeria Bignozzi & Claudio Macci & Lea Petrella, 2017. "Large deviations for risk measures in finite mixture models," Papers 1710.03252, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    4. Thierry Cohignac & Nabil Kazi-Tani, 2019. "Quantile Mixing and Model Uncertainty Measures," Working Papers hal-02405859, HAL.
    5. Thibaut Lux & Antonis Papapantoleon, 2016. "Model-free bounds on Value-at-Risk using extreme value information and statistical distances," Papers 1610.09734, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    6. Carole Bernard & Ludger Rüschendorf & Steven Vanduffel, 2017. "Value-at-Risk Bounds With Variance Constraints," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 923-959, September.
    7. Lin, Edward M.H. & Sun, Edward W. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Behavioral data-driven analysis with Bayesian method for risk management of financial services," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    8. Bernard, Carole & Kazzi, Rodrigue & Vanduffel, Steven, 2020. "Range Value-at-Risk bounds for unimodal distributions under partial information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 9-24.
    9. Volker Stein & Arnd Wiedemann, 2016. "Risk governance: conceptualization, tasks, and research agenda," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(8), pages 813-836, November.
    10. Bernard, Carole & Vanduffel, Steven, 2015. "A new approach to assessing model risk in high dimensions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 166-178.
    11. Lux, Thibaut & Papapantoleon, Antonis, 2019. "Model-free bounds on Value-at-Risk using extreme value information and statistical distances," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 73-83.
    12. Changki Kim & Yangho Choi & Woojoo Lee & Jae Youn Ahn, 2013. "Analyzing Herd Behavior in Global Stock Markets: An Intercontinental Comparison," Papers 1308.3966, arXiv.org.
    13. Mai Jan-Frederik & Schenk Steffen & Scherer Matthias, 2015. "Analyzing model robustness via a distortion of the stochastic root: A Dirichlet prior approach," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 32(3-4), pages 177-195, December.
    14. Valeriane Jokhadze & Wolfgang M. Schmidt, 2020. "Measuring Model Risk In Financial Risk Management And Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(02), pages 1-37, April.
    15. Bignozzi, Valeria & Macci, Claudio & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Large deviations for risk measures in finite mixture models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 84-92.
    16. Braouezec, Yann & Grunspan, Cyril, 2016. "A new elementary geometric approach to option pricing bounds in discrete time models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 270-280.
    17. Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "A theory for combinations of risk measures," Papers 1807.01977, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    18. Tolulope Fadina & Ariel Neufeld & Thorsten Schmidt, 2018. "Affine processes under parameter uncertainty," Papers 1806.02912, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    19. Marco Frittelli & Marco Maggis, 2017. "Disentangling Price, Risk and Model Risk: V&R measures," Papers 1703.01329, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    20. Coqueret, Guillaume & Tavin, Bertrand, 2016. "An investigation of model risk in a market with jumps and stochastic volatility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 648-658.
    21. Paul Embrechts & Giovanni Puccetti & Ludger Rüschendorf & Ruodu Wang & Antonela Beleraj, 2014. "An Academic Response to Basel 3.5," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, February.
    22. Claußen, Arndt & Rösch, Daniel & Schmelzle, Martin, 2019. "Hedging parameter risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 111-121.
    23. James Ming Chen, 2018. "On Exactitude in Financial Regulation: Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and Expectiles," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, June.

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