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Real options valuation of forest plantation investments in Brazil

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  • Kallio, Markku
  • Kuula, Markku
  • Oinonen, Sami

Abstract

In this paper, we consider investments in eucalyptus plantations in Brazil. For such projects, we discuss real options valuation in the place conventional methods such as IRR or NPV, possibly with CAPM. Traditionally, real options valuation assumes complete markets and neglects market imperfections. Yet, market frictions, such as transaction costs, interest rate spreads, and restricted short positions, can play an important role. We extend real options valuation to allow incomplete and imperfect markets. The value is obtained as a competitive price, given markets of competing investment opportunities, such as real and financial assets. Under perfect and complete markets, such valuation method is consistent with conventional real options theory. Stochastic programming and standard software is used for valuation of eucalyptus plantations. We estimate the underlying interdependent diffusion processes of stock market, interest rates, exchange rates and pulpwood price, and derive novel expressions of stochastic integrals to be employed in scenario generation for discrete time stochastic programming.

Suggested Citation

  • Kallio, Markku & Kuula, Markku & Oinonen, Sami, 2012. "Real options valuation of forest plantation investments in Brazil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 428-438.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:217:y:2012:i:2:p:428-438
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.09.040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ghosh, Suvankar & Troutt, Marvin D., 2012. "Complex compound option models – Can practitioners truly operationalize them?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 542-552.
    3. Trigeorgis, Lenos & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2018. "Real Options in Operations Research: A Review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 1-24.
    4. Mitra, Sovan & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Sermpinis, Georgios & Dunis, Christian & Hood, John, 2015. "Operational risk: Emerging markets, sectors and measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 122-132.
    5. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1366-1389.

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