IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v346y2017icp30-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change impact assessment—A simulation experiment with Norway spruce for a forest district in Central Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Thiele, Jan C.
  • Nuske, Robert S.
  • Ahrends, Bernd
  • Panferov, Oleg
  • Albert, Matthias
  • Staupendahl, Kai
  • Junghans, Udo
  • Jansen, Martin
  • Saborowski, Joachim

Abstract

Projected climate change implies that site conditions can no longer be expected to remain constant over a tree’s lifetime. The fast and complex changes in site characteristics and growth patterns diminish the value of traditional knowledge and profoundly alter the conditions of forest management. One way to tackle the inherent uncertainties are simulation studies addressing these new dynamics and mechanisms. The aim of this study is to present such a simulation model system comprising various established and validated process-based and statistical models assessing the complex and dynamic response of a forest stand to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiele, Jan C. & Nuske, Robert S. & Ahrends, Bernd & Panferov, Oleg & Albert, Matthias & Staupendahl, Kai & Junghans, Udo & Jansen, Martin & Saborowski, Joachim, 2017. "Climate change impact assessment—A simulation experiment with Norway spruce for a forest district in Central Europe," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 346(C), pages 30-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:346:y:2017:i:c:p:30-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.11.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016307153
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.11.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven J. Smith & James Edmonds & Corinne A. Hartin & Anupriya Mundra & Katherine Calvin, 2015. "Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 333-336, April.
    2. Marc Hanewinkel & Dominik A. Cullmann & Mart-Jan Schelhaas & Gert-Jan Nabuurs & Niklaus E. Zimmermann, 2013. "Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 203-207, March.
    3. Mart-Jan Schelhaas & Geerten Hengeveld & Marco Moriondo & Gert Reinds & Zbigniew Kundzewicz & Herbert Maat & Marco Bindi, 2010. "Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 681-701, October.
    4. Annette Menzel & Peter Fabian, 1999. "Growing season extended in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 659-659, February.
    5. Dieter, Matthias, 2001. "Land expectation values for spruce and beech calculated with Monte Carlo modelling techniques," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 157-166, June.
    6. Anna Jönsson & Susanne Harding & Paal Krokene & Holger Lange & Åke Lindelöw & Bjørn Økland & Hans Ravn & Leif Schroeder, 2011. "Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 695-718, December.
    7. Vincent Kint & Wim Aertsen & Matteo Campioli & Dries Vansteenkiste & Andy Delcloo & Bart Muys, 2012. "Radial growth change of temperate tree species in response to altered regional climate and air quality in the period 1901–2008," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 343-363, November.
    8. Wickham, Hadley, 2011. "The Split-Apply-Combine Strategy for Data Analysis," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 40(i01).
    9. Olchev, A. & Ibrom, A. & Priess, J. & Erasmi, S. & Leemhuis, C. & Twele, A. & Radler, K. & Kreilein, H. & Panferov, O. & Gravenhorst, G., 2008. "Effects of land-use changes on evapotranspiration of tropical rain forest margin area in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia): Modelling study with a regional SVAT model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 131-137.
    10. Seidl, Rupert & Baier, Peter & Rammer, Werner & Schopf, Axel & Lexer, Manfred J., 2007. "Modelling tree mortality by bark beetle infestation in Norway spruce forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 383-399.
    11. Staupendahl, Kai & Möhring, Bernhard, 2011. "Integrating natural risks into silvicultural decision models: A survival function approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 496-502, July.
    12. Wickham, Hadley, 2007. "Reshaping Data with the reshape Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i12).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marjan Goodarzi & Mehdi Pourhashemi & Zahra Azizi, 2019. "Investigation on Zagros forests cover changes under the recent droughts using satellite imagery," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 9-17.
    2. Fuchs, Jasper M. & v. Bodelschwingh, Hilmar & Lange, Alexander & Paul, Carola & Husmann, Kai, 2022. "Quantifying the consequences of disturbances on wood revenues with Impulse Response Functions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Härtl, Fabian & Knoke, Thomas, 2014. "The influence of the oil price on timber supply," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-42.
    2. Knoke, Thomas & Gosling, Elizabeth & Thom, Dominik & Chreptun, Claudia & Rammig, Anja & Seidl, Rupert, 2021. "Economic losses from natural disturbances in Norway spruce forests – A quantification using Monte-Carlo simulations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Miller, Christine M.F. & Waterhouse, Hannah & Harter, Thomas & Fadel, James G. & Meyer, Deanne, 2020. "Quantifying the uncertainty in nitrogen application and groundwater nitrate leaching in manure based cropping systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Sarlas, Georgios & Páez, Antonio & Axhausen, Kay W., 2020. "Betweenness-accessibility: Estimating impacts of accessibility on networks," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Marin FOTACHE & Florin DUMITRU & Valerica GREAVU-SERBAN, 2015. "An Information Systems Master Programme in Romania. Some Commonalities and Specificities," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(3), pages 5-18.
    6. Martijn Van Heel & Dinska Van Gucht & Koen Vanbrabant & Frank Baeyens, 2017. "The Importance of Conditioned Stimuli in Cigarette and E-Cigarette Craving Reduction by E-Cigarettes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Sean McKenzie & Hilary Parkinson & Jane Mangold & Mary Burrows & Selena Ahmed & Fabian Menalled, 2018. "Perceptions, Experiences, and Priorities Supporting Agroecosystem Management Decisions Differ among Agricultural Producers, Consultants, and Researchers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, November.
    8. Milad Abbasiharofteh & Tom Broekel, 2021. "Still in the shadow of the wall? The case of the Berlin biotechnology cluster," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.
    9. Andee J. Kaplan & Eric R. Hare, 2019. "Putting down roots: a graphical exploration of community attachment," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 1449-1464, December.
    10. Paul J McMurdie & Susan Holmes, 2014. "Waste Not, Want Not: Why Rarefying Microbiome Data Is Inadmissible," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, April.
    11. Roessiger, Joerg & Griess, Verena C. & Härtl, Fabian & Clasen, Christian & Knoke, Thomas, 2013. "How economic performance of a stand increases due to decreased failure risk associated with the admixing of species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 255(C), pages 58-69.
    12. Loisel, Patrice, 2014. "Impact of storm risk on Faustmann rotation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-198.
    13. Thomas Knoke & Carola Paul & Elizabeth Gosling & Isabelle Jarisch & Johannes Mohr & Rupert Seidl, 2023. "Assessing the Economic Resilience of Different Management Systems to Severe Forest Disturbance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(2), pages 343-381, February.
    14. Fuchs, Jasper M. & v. Bodelschwingh, Hilmar & Lange, Alexander & Paul, Carola & Husmann, Kai, 2022. "Quantifying the consequences of disturbances on wood revenues with Impulse Response Functions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Stefan LINGNER & Eiko THIESSEN & Kerrin MÜLLER & Eberhard HARTUNG, 2018. "Dry Biomass Estimation of Hedge Banks: Allometric Equation vs. Structure from Motion via Unmanned Aerial Vehicle," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 149-156.
    16. Wickham, Hadley, 2014. "Tidy Data," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 59(i10).
    17. Cornelius J. König & Clemens B. Fell & Linus Kellnhofer & Gabriel Schui, 2015. "Are there gender differences among researchers from industrial/organizational psychology?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(3), pages 1931-1952, December.
    18. Félix Bastit & Marielle Brunette & Claire Montagne-Huck, 2021. "Earth, wind and fire: A multi-hazard risk review for natural disturbances in forests," Working Papers of BETA 2021-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    19. C. Sean Burns & Charles W. Fox, 2017. "Language and socioeconomics predict geographic variation in peer review outcomes at an ecology journal," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(2), pages 1113-1127, November.
    20. Martín, Belén & Páez, Antonio, 2019. "Individual and geographic variations in the propensity to travel by active modes in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 103-113.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:346:y:2017:i:c:p:30-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.