IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating natural risks into silvicultural decision models: A survival function approach


  • Staupendahl, Kai
  • Möhring, Bernhard


In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of natural disturbances of silvicultural production, such as storms and insects, are expected to increase. Hence, now more than ever before such factors must be considered in forest management. As a contribution to this topic, this article presents a calculation model implemented in Excel frames, which supports decisions in forest production under changing conditions. Risk is integrated into the model by the Weibull function, which serves as an age-dependent survival function. In order to facilitate an intuitive interpretation of its coefficients, it was used in a reparametrised form. Furthermore, salvage price reductions and cost additions caused by calamities are considered. The target variable is the 'annuity under risk'. We demonstrate exemplarily how different parameters of the survival function influence the probability distribution and thus the expected value of the annuity of a spruce stand. The differences between the annuities with and without a consideration of risk are interpreted as current, annual risk costs. It can be shown that risk lowers the annuity, whereas scenarios with high risks in the young stand stages have a higher impact than those with high risks in mature stands. In the latter case, adaptation is possible by shortening the rotation period. This does not hold in the case of early risks, which cannot be avoided. For this case, an extension of the rotation length is recommended. By changing the parameters of the survival function, this scheme allows forest managers to incorporate changing risks into their management planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Staupendahl, Kai & Möhring, Bernhard, 2011. "Integrating natural risks into silvicultural decision models: A survival function approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 496-502, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:13:y:2011:i:6:p:496-502

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dieter, Matthias, 2001. "Land expectation values for spruce and beech calculated with Monte Carlo modelling techniques," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 157-166, June.
    2. Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
    3. Holecy, Jan & Hanewinkel, Marc, 2006. "A forest management risk insurance model and its application to coniferous stands in southwest Germany," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 161-174, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Thiele, Jan C. & Nuske, Robert S. & Ahrends, Bernd & Panferov, Oleg & Albert, Matthias & Staupendahl, Kai & Junghans, Udo & Jansen, Martin & Saborowski, Joachim, 2017. "Climate change impact assessment—A simulation experiment with Norway spruce for a forest district in Central Europe," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 346(C), pages 30-47.
    2. Härtl, Fabian & Knoke, Thomas, 2014. "The influence of the oil price on timber supply," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-42.
    3. repec:eee:foreco:v:30:y:2018:i:c:p:32-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Anna Jönsson & Fredrik Lagergren & Benjamin Smith, 2015. "Forest management facing climate change - an ecosystem model analysis of adaptation strategies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 201-220, February.
    5. Loisel, Patrice, 2014. "Impact of storm risk on Faustmann rotation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-198.
    6. repec:eee:ecomod:v:255:y:2013:i:c:p:58-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:foreco:v:30:y:2018:i:c:p:58-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Deegen, Peter & Matolepszy, Kai, 2015. "Economic balancing of forest management under storm risk, the case of the Ore Mountains (Germany)," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-13.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:13:y:2011:i:6:p:496-502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.