Integrating natural risks into silvicultural decision models: A survival function approach
In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of natural disturbances of silvicultural production, such as storms and insects, are expected to increase. Hence, now more than ever before such factors must be considered in forest management. As a contribution to this topic, this article presents a calculation model implemented in Excel frames, which supports decisions in forest production under changing conditions. Risk is integrated into the model by the Weibull function, which serves as an age-dependent survival function. In order to facilitate an intuitive interpretation of its coefficients, it was used in a reparametrised form. Furthermore, salvage price reductions and cost additions caused by calamities are considered. The target variable is the 'annuity under risk'. We demonstrate exemplarily how different parameters of the survival function influence the probability distribution and thus the expected value of the annuity of a spruce stand. The differences between the annuities with and without a consideration of risk are interpreted as current, annual risk costs. It can be shown that risk lowers the annuity, whereas scenarios with high risks in the young stand stages have a higher impact than those with high risks in mature stands. In the latter case, adaptation is possible by shortening the rotation period. This does not hold in the case of early risks, which cannot be avoided. For this case, an extension of the rotation length is recommended. By changing the parameters of the survival function, this scheme allows forest managers to incorporate changing risks into their management planning.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
- Holecy, Jan & Hanewinkel, Marc, 2006. "A forest management risk insurance model and its application to coniferous stands in southwest Germany," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 161-174, March.
- Dieter, Matthias, 2001. "Land expectation values for spruce and beech calculated with Monte Carlo modelling techniques," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 157-166, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:13:y:2011:i:6:p:496-502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.