IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v344y2017icp29-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating biophysical and socio-economic factors for land-use and land-cover change projection in agricultural economic regions

Author

Listed:
  • Dang, Anh Nguyet
  • Kawasaki, Akiyuki

Abstract

Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) are shaped by society–nature interactions and processes. Therefore, a full study of LUCC dynamics needs explicitly to take account of both socio-economic and biophysical factors. Although some studies have addressed both these drivers, most are built as a package/black-box and consider individual types of land-use rather than land systems as a whole. Our research aims to develop a comprehensive and flexible framework that links socio-economic and biophysical driving factors to project LUCC. The framework combines System Dynamics and Geographic Information System (GIS) models, with System Dynamics used to examine the relationship between socio-economic driving factors of LUCC processes and land demand estimates. The GIS model is used to allocate land demand to the most suitable grid cells, according to the different biophysical characteristics of the cells. The study is based on the application of the framework in Dak Lak province, Vietnam, where economic development has resulted in rapid LUCC. The Kappa value of our study, compared with actual land-use in the province (2010), is 0.87. It proves that our model is reliable and can help land-use planners and policy makers develop sustainable land-use planning and management strategies. Working on the assumption that the trends indicated in Dak Lak’s 2020 land-use plan continue, we produced projected land-use/land-cover maps for 2020 and 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Dang, Anh Nguyet & Kawasaki, Akiyuki, 2017. "Integrating biophysical and socio-economic factors for land-use and land-cover change projection in agricultural economic regions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 344(C), pages 29-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:344:y:2017:i:c:p:29-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.11.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016306639
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Müller & Darla K. Munroe, 2005. "Tradeoffs between Rural Development Policies and Forest Protection: Spatially Explicit Modeling in the Central Highlands of Vietnam," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(3).
    2. Michetti, Melania, 2012. "Modelling Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry in Climate Change: A Review of Major Approaches," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 130546, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Rasmussen, Laura Vang & Rasmussen, Kjeld & Reenberg, Anette & Proud, Simon, 2012. "A system dynamics approach to land use changes in agro-pastoral systems on the desert margins of Sahel," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 56-64.
    4. Tran Ty & Kengo Sunada & Yutaka Ichikawa & Satoru Oishi, 2012. "Scenario-based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Water Resources and Demand: A Case Study in the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam—Cambodia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(5), pages 1387-1407, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ayanlade, Ayansina & Howard, Michael T., 2017. "Understanding changes in a Tropical Delta: A multi-method narrative of landuse/landcover change in the Niger Delta," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 53-65.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:344:y:2017:i:c:p:29-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.