Quantification and Analysis of Factors Influencing Territorial Spatial Conflicts in the Gully Region of the Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Qingyang City, Gansu Province, China

The gullied Loess Plateau, a region characterized by the overlapping of ecological fragility and energy abundance in China, requires urgent analysis of its territorial spatial conflict mechanisms to harmonize human–environment relationships. This study integrated multi-temporal remote sensing data (1990–2020) to develop a Comprehensive Spatial Conflict Index (CSCI) and applied the Optimal Parameter-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) to unravel the driving mechanisms of territorial spatial evolution in Qingyang City, Gansu Province. The results revealed that: (1) Territorial spaces exhibit a transition pattern of ecological restoration, urban expansion, and agricultural contraction. Forest and grassland ecological spaces increased by 1.42 percentage points (to 13.14%) and 1.26 percentage points (to 49.29%), respectively, while industrial-mining production spaces expanded sevenfold (0.01% to 0.08%), and agricultural production spaces decreased by 3.36 percentage points. (2) Spatial conflicts transitioned through three phases: ① A low-intensity stabilization phase (1990–2000), with 90.55% of areas under weak and moderately weak conflict (CSCI ≤ 0.4); ② A moderate conflict contraction phase (2000–2010), where weak conflict zones surged by 28.18 percentage points (13.06% → 41.24%), with moderate and moderately weak spatial conflict (0.2–0.6) decreasing by 28.27 percentage points (86.06% → 57.79%); ③ A moderately strong to strong expansion phase (2010–2020), with moderate and moderately strong conflict areas rising to 16.82%. Strong conflict zones (CSCI ≥ 0.8) expanded to 0.61%, spatially clustered in the Xifeng urban area and the Malian–Pu River corridor, showing significant positive correlations with gully density (>3.5 km∙km −2 ) and nighttime light index (NL). (3) The interaction between NDVI and land use intensity (LUI) dominated conflict patterns ( q = 0.2583). In northern energy development zones (Huanxian County), LUI and precipitation (PRE) synergistically intensified landslide risks, while facility agriculture in central plateau farmlands (Ningxian County) triggered groundwater overexploitation. The coupling of road density (RND) and population (POP) factors ( q = 0.1892) formed a transportation–population axial belt compression. Policy interventions exhibited spatial heterogeneity: the Grain-for-Green Program increased weak conflict zones by 28.18 percentage points, whereas wind power development in the Huanxian–Huachi northern belt escalated moderately strong to strong conflict zones by 3.6 percentage points. A three-dimensional governance framework integrating geomorphological adaptation, development phasing, and ecological compensation is proposed to optimize territorial spatial planning in the gullied Loess Plateau.