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Optimal linear aggregation of correlated expert judgments

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  • Peker, Cem

Abstract

This paper studies Bayesian aggregation of judgments with overlapping information. Experts receive a common and a private signal. Simple average of judgments is biased as it double counts common information. We develop a peer prediction game where experts guess others’ judgments as well as reporting their own judgment. Equilibrium reports provide sufficient information to recover all independent signals and optimal weights for linear aggregation. The result holds for N≥2 experts.

Suggested Citation

  • Peker, Cem, 2026. "Optimal linear aggregation of correlated expert judgments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:261:y:2026:i:c:s0165176526000492
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112855
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    References listed on IDEAS

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