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Abortion ballot measures affect election outcomes

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  • Gardner, Graham
  • McCrary, Kayleigh
  • Spencer, Melissa K.

Abstract

In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Democratic candidates lost fewer than predicted seats and stymied an expected red wave. News coverage and polling data represent this surprise Democratic success as a result of voters’ response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Using county-level vote data, we find that the decrease in Republican vote margin in 2022 can be explained by demographic and economic factors. However, relative to the national average, the Republican vote margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points more in states with abortion-related ballot measures. Our results indicate that abortion ballot measures have effects on election outcomes of a magnitude large enough to determine competitive races.

Suggested Citation

  • Gardner, Graham & McCrary, Kayleigh & Spencer, Melissa K., 2025. "Abortion ballot measures affect election outcomes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:247:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525000199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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