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Short-run momentum, long-run mean reversion and excess volatility: An elementary housing model

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  • Schmitt, Noemi
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

We propose an elementary housing model that replicates the key properties of housing bubbles, namely short-run momentum, long-run mean reversion, and excess volatility. We analytically proof that such dynamics can only emerge if homebuyers place sufficient weight on extrapolative expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2019. "Short-run momentum, long-run mean reversion and excess volatility: An elementary housing model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 43-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:43-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation and American History," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 1-42, May.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    3. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978, January.
    4. Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), 2015. "Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 5.
    5. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
    6. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    8. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation Of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation And American History," NBER Working Papers 18825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
    2. Laura Gardini & Noemi Schmitt & Iryna Sushko & Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff, 2019. "Necessary and sufficient conditions for the roots of a cubic polynomial and bifurcations of codimension-1, -2, -3 for 3D maps," Working Papers 1908, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    3. Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto, 2025. "Inflation expectations and price-setting decisions: insights from the housing market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1507, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    5. Sarah Mignot & Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff, 2024. "Complex dynamics in a nonlinear duopoly model with heuristic expectation formation and learning behavior," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 337(3), pages 809-834, June.
    6. Adam, Klaus & Pfäuti, Oliver & Reinelt, Timo, 2025. "Subjective housing price expectations, falling natural rates, and the optimal inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. ter Ellen, Saskia & Hommes, Cars H. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 747-769.
    8. Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2022. "Speculative housing markets and rent control: insights from nonlinear economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 141-163, January.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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