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Historical evidence on a modern theory of out-of-wedlock childbearing

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  • Ragan, Kelly S.

Abstract

According to Willis (1999), when women outnumber men in a marriage market, out-of-wedlock births increase as women’s incomes rise in real terms and relative to men’s. These predictions are born out in 19th century Swedish data; exogenous shocks that raised women’s real and relative earnings increased the share of births to single mothers. The results are consistent with theory and quantitatively significant; increases in women’s real and relative wages in the unskilled agricultural sector explain sixty-four percent of the increase in births outside of wedlock in Sweden from 1865–1910.

Suggested Citation

  • Ragan, Kelly S., 2019. "Historical evidence on a modern theory of out-of-wedlock childbearing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 24-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:24-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.11.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nico Voigtl?nder & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "How the West "Invented" Fertility Restriction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2227-2264, October.
    2. Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "Changing World Prices, Women's Wages, and the Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1860-1910," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1126-1154, December.
    3. Robert J. Willis, 1999. "A Theory of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 33-64, December.
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