Revisions to US labor market data and the public’s perception of the economy
Using the monthly “Employment Situation” reports for 1994–2013, this paper studies the revisions to US employment data. The paper shows that the first press release underestimates net job creation in expansions and overestimates it in downturns. The “errors” in reporting the data on the labor market can distort the public’s perception about the stance of the labor market and have some political consequences. This is well reflected by the finding that the job approval rating of President Obama, the index of consumer confidence, and the economic conditions index of Gallup have all been responding to the initial news on the US labor market as they were published in the Employment Situation reports.
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- S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008.
"Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved,"
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- Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David E. Runkle, 1998. "Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-12.
- Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-2539, October.
- Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/59cr4u3mmr9, Sciences Po.
- Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2011. "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: The ragged-edge problem and revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 784-792.
- Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2005. "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: the ragged-edge problem and revisions," CCSO Working Papers 200505, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Fox, Gerald T., 2012. "Macroeconomic time consistency and wartime presidential approval," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 891-902.
- Franses, Philip Hans, 2013. "Data revisions and periodic properties of macroeconomic data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 139-141.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," NBER Working Papers 12167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fox, Gerald & Phillips, Earl N., 2003. "Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 411-424, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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