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Stock return predictability despite low autocorrelation

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  • Amini, Shima
  • Hudson, Robert
  • Keasey, Kevin

Abstract

This paper shows that short horizon stock returns can be predicted to a much greater degree by past price movements than would be anticipated given their low autocorrelation. This raises doubts over the reliability of the autocorrelation statistic as a measure of stock market predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Amini, Shima & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2010. "Stock return predictability despite low autocorrelation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 101-103, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:108:y:2010:i:1:p:101-103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan L. & Joulmer, Joulmer, 2009. "Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1481-1493, August.
    2. Atkins, Allen B. & Dyl, Edward A., 1990. "Price Reversals, Bid-Ask Spreads, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 535-547, December.
    3. Lasfer, M. Ameziane & Melnik, Arie & Thomas, Dylan C., 2003. "Short-term reaction of stock markets in stressful circumstances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1959-1977, October.
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    5. Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. "Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-267, March.
    6. Brown, Keith C. & Harlow, W. V. & Tinic, Seha M., 1988. "Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 355-385, December.
    7. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. Park, Jinwoo, 1995. "A Market Microstructure Explanation for Predictable Variations in Stock Returns following Large Price Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 241-256, June.
    10. Bremer, Marc & Sweeney, Richard J, 1991. "The Reversal of Large Stock-Price Decreases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 747-754, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xue, Wen-Jun & Zhang, Li-Wen, 2017. "Stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market—Evidence from threshold quantile autoregressive models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 391-401.
    2. Wen-Jun Xue & Li-Wen Zhang, 2016. "Stock Return Autocorrelations and Predictability in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 1605, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    3. Siddique, Maryam, 2023. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Exist in Equity Market? Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints 9b5dx, Center for Open Science.
    4. Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "How predictable are precious metal returns?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1390-1413, November.
    5. Liam Ison & Robert Hudson, 2017. "Stock predictability and preceding stock price changes – evidence from central and eastern european markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 733-740.
    6. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    7. Muhammad Naeem Shahid, 2022. "COVID-19 and adaptive behavior of returns: evidence from commodity markets," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Andrew Urquhart, 2014. "The Euro and European stock market efficiency," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1235-1248, October.
    9. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.

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