IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v68y2023ics1062940823000992.html

The cross-border interaction of financial stress: From the perspective of pattern causality

Author

Listed:
  • Yao, Xiaoyang
  • Le, Wei
  • Li, Jianfeng
  • Liu, Enmeng

Abstract

It remains enigmatic and challenging, yet inspiring, to identify the interactions of financial stress, particularly when integration of international financial markets has intensified. Considering the nonlinear nature of financial markets, this study investigated the cross-border interaction of financial stress from the perspective of pattern causality. A multi-type and dynamic recognition of cross-border interactions was made, which can be characterized as positive, negative, or dark causality. Using the composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS) ranging from October 10, 2006, to July 15, 2022, empirical studies were conducted on the financial markets of China, the U.S., and the Euro area. The results showed that the positive causality of financial stress dominates, followed by dark causality in most cases. The positive causality between financial stress is enhanced in periods of extensive stress. When stress is released, positive causality declines and dark causality increases, implying that interaction structures are hidden and become opaque. In addition, the causality of different financial markets shows some heterogeneity: the positive causality of financial stress is stronger in advanced economies, while the dark causality between China and the U.S./Euro area is more evident than that between other advanced economies. This implies greater uncertainty regarding the cross-border interactions of emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Xiaoyang & Le, Wei & Li, Jianfeng & Liu, Enmeng, 2023. "The cross-border interaction of financial stress: From the perspective of pattern causality," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:68:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823000992
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.101976
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940823000992
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2023.101976?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoti, Suhejla, 2005. "Modelling country spillover effects in country risk ratings," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 324-345, December.
    2. Fink, Fabian & Schüler, Yves S., 2015. "The transmission of US systemic financial stress: Evidence for emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 6-26.
    3. Corsi, Fulvio & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide & Trapin, Luca, 2018. "Measuring the propagation of financial distress with Granger-causality tail risk networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
    4. Yoldas, Emre & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2018. "Financial stress and equilibrium dynamics in term interbank funding markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 136-149.
    5. Sun, Xiaolei & Wang, Jun & Yao, Yanzhen & Li, Jingyu & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Spillovers among sovereign CDS, stock and commodity markets: A correlation network perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2014. "Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 57-70.
    8. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    9. Hong, Yongmiao & Liu, Yanhui & Wang, Shouyang, 2009. "Granger causality in risk and detection of extreme risk spillover between financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 271-287, June.
    10. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    11. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier & Reboredo, Juan C., 2022. "Exchange rates and the global transmission of equity market shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio & Spelta, Alessandro, 2021. "Commodity prices co-movements and financial stability: A multidimensional visibility nexus with climate conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Jana, Rabin K & Ghosh, Indranil & Goyal, Vinay, 2022. "Spillover nexus of financial stress during black Swan events," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    15. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    16. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    17. Tsai, I-Chun, 2017. "The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 122-131.
    18. Wu, Tao & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Sufang & Liu, Siyao, 2021. "Time-varying pattern causality inference in global stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gaies, Brahim, 2025. "Risky finance, riskier climate: when financial instability meets climate risks on the bridge of sustainability uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Zixuan & Long, Shaobo & Xu, Xiang, 2025. "Dynamic spillovers between global financial stress and uncertainties: Evidence from quantile connectedness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Yao, Xiaoyang & Le, Wei & Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Financial stress dynamics in China: An interconnectedness perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 217-238.
    3. Long, Shaobo & Li, Zixuan, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects of global financial stress: Evidence from the quantile VAR network," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Altınkeski, Buket Kırcı & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2022. "Financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Kapar, Burcu & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "Quantifying the volatility spillover dynamics between financial stress and US financial sectors: Evidence from QVAR connectedness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    6. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    7. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of the international transmission of US financial stress. A threshold-VAR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-81.
    8. Liow, Kim Hiang & Liao, Wen-Chi & Huang, Yuting, 2018. "Dynamics of international spillovers and interaction: Evidence from financial market stress and economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 96-116.
    9. Haddou, Samira, 2022. "International financial stress spillovers to bank lending: Do internal characteristics matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi & Devi Datt Tewari, 2020. "Financial Stress Index and Economic Activity in South Africa: New Evidence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    12. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    13. Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
    14. Zouheir Ahmed Mighri & Majid Ibrahim Alsaggaf, 2019. "Asymmetric Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment between Oil Prices and Financial Stress," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 87-105.
    15. Huotari, Jarkko, 2015. "Measuring financial stress – A country specific stress index for Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2015, Bank of Finland.
    16. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
    17. Ján Malega & Roman Horváth, 2017. "Financial Stress in the Czech Republic: Measurement and Effects on the Real Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 257-268.
    18. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Financial Stress: Evidence for China," Working Papers 202428, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Malgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Pawel Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2017. "Role of Foreign Capital in Stability of Banking Sectors in CESEE Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(6), pages 492-511, October.
    20. An, Hui & Wang, Hao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao, 2022. "Early warning system for risk of external liquidity shock in BRICS countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:68:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823000992. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.