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Corporation tax revenue growth in the UK: A microsimulation analysis

  • Creedy, John
  • Gemmell, Norman

This paper examines the built-in flexibility properties -- as measured by the elasticity of revenue with respect to profits -- of the UK corporation tax system. Emphasis is placed on determining some of the major influences on the extent to which total corporation tax revenue changes when profits change over the economic cycle. A microsimulation model, CorpSim, is constructed and used to obtain numerical results. In the model, corporations use group relief, capital allowances and losses in a tax-minimising manner. The growth of aggregate corporation tax revenue in practice in the UK appears to be highly volatile in relation to the growth of profits. High volatility in revenue elasticities is found to be especially associated with economic downturns. In mild economic downturns, corporation tax revenue elasticities may rise (because tax growth falls less than profit growth), but in more severe downturns, large but temporary decreases in revenue elasticities (and even negative elasticities) can be expected.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-4VPV8VW-1/2/1283ef753abc8ae90b16786aa14deb3e
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 614-625

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:614-625
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2003. "The Revenue Responsiveness of Income and Consumption Taxes in the UK," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(6), pages 641-658, December.
  2. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2009. "Corporation tax revenue growth in the UK: A microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 614-625, May.
  3. Auerbach, Alan J, 1986. "The Dynamic Effects of Tax Law Asymmetries," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 205-25, April.
  4. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2008. "Corporation tax buoyancy and revenue elasticity in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 24-37, January.
  5. Rosanne Altshuler & Alan J. Auerbach, 1987. "The Significance of Tax Law Asymmetries: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 2279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michael Devereux & Rachel Griffith & Alexander Klemm, 2004. "How has the UK corporation tax raised so much revenue?," IFS Working Papers W04/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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