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Targeting humanitarian aid using administrative data: Model design and validation

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  • Altındağ, Onur
  • O'Connell, Stephen D.
  • Şaşmaz, Aytuğ
  • Balcıoğlu, Zeynep
  • Cadoni, Paola
  • Jerneck, Matilda
  • Foong, Aimee Kunze

Abstract

We develop and assess the performance of an econometric prediction model that relies on administrative data held by international agencies to target over $380 million annually in unconditional cash transfers to Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Standard metrics of prediction accuracy suggest targeting using administrative data is comparable to a short-form Proxy Means Test, which requires a survey of the entire target population. We show that small differences in accuracy across approaches are largely attributable to a few data fields. These results are robust to a blind validation test performed on a random sample collected after the model derivation, as well as the type of estimator used for prediction. We discuss relative costs, which are likely to feature prominently when alternative approaches are considered in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Altındağ, Onur & O'Connell, Stephen D. & Şaşmaz, Aytuğ & Balcıoğlu, Zeynep & Cadoni, Paola & Jerneck, Matilda & Foong, Aimee Kunze, 2021. "Targeting humanitarian aid using administrative data: Model design and validation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:148:y:2021:i:c:s0304387820301395
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102564
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    Cited by:

    1. Aysegül Kayaoglu & Ghassan Baliki & Tilman Brück & Melodie Al Daccache & Dorothee Weiffen, 2023. "How to conduct impact evaluations in humanitarian and conflict settings," HiCN Working Papers 387, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Pape, Utz & Verme, Paolo, 2023. "Measuring Poverty in Forced Displacement Contexts," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1245, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Theresa Beltramo & Hai-Anh H. Dang & Ibrahima Sarr & Paolo Verme, 2020. "Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise for Chad," Working Papers 536, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    4. Angela C. Lyons & Josephine Kass‐Hanna & Alejandro Montoya Castano, 2023. "A multidimensional approach to measuring vulnerability to poverty among refugee populations," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 2014-2045, October.
    5. Moussa, Wael & Salti, Nisreen & Irani, Alexandra & Mokdad, Rima Al & Jamaluddine, Zeina & Chaaban, Jad & Ghattas, Hala, 2022. "The impact of cash transfers on Syrian refugee children in Lebanon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Dang, Hai-Anh & Kilic, Talip & Hlasny, Vladimir & Abanokova, Kseniya & Carletto, Calogero, 2024. "Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 16792, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Özler, Berk & Çelik, Çiğdem & Cunningham, Scott & Cuevas, P. Facundo & Parisotto, Luca, 2021. "Children on the move: Progressive redistribution of humanitarian cash transfers among refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Altındağ, Onur & O’Connell, Stephen D., 2023. "The short-lived effects of unconditional cash transfers to refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    9. Linden McBride & Christopher B. Barrett & Christopher Browne & Leiqiu Hu & Yanyan Liu & David S. Matteson & Ying Sun & Jiaming Wen, 2022. "Predicting poverty and malnutrition for targeting, mapping, monitoring, and early warning," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 879-892, June.
    10. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Peter F. Lanjouw, 2023. "Regression-based imputation for poverty measurement in data-scarce settings," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber (ed.), Research Handbook on Measuring Poverty and Deprivation, chapter 13, pages 141-150, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Salti, Nisreen & Chaaban, Jad & Moussa, Wael & Irani, Alexandra & Al Mokdad, Rima & Jamaluddine, Zeina & Ghattas, Hala, 2022. "The impact of cash transfers on Syrian refugees in Lebanon: Evidence from a multidimensional regression discontinuity design," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    12. Beltramo, Theresa P. & Calvi, Rossella & De Giorgi, Giacomo & Sarr, Ibrahima, 2023. "Child poverty among refugees," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty targeting; Proxy means test; Cash transfers; Refugees; Forced displacement; Lebanon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I39 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Other
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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