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Bayesian analysis of robust Poisson geometric process model using heavy-tailed distributions

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  • Wan, Wai-Yin
  • Chan, Jennifer So-Kuen

Abstract

We propose a robust Poisson geometric process model with heavy-tailed distributions to cope with the problem of outliers as it may lead to an overestimation of mean and variance resulting in inaccurate interpretations of the situations. Two heavy-tailed distributions namely Student's t and exponential power distributions with different tailednesses and kurtoses are used and they are represented in scale mixture of normal and scale mixture of uniform respectively. The proposed model is capable of describing the trend and meanwhile the mixing parameters in the scale mixture representations can detect the outlying observations. Simulations and real data analysis are performed to investigate the properties of the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan, Wai-Yin & Chan, Jennifer So-Kuen, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of robust Poisson geometric process model using heavy-tailed distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 687-702, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:55:y:2011:i:1:p:687-702
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lam Yeh & So Kuen Chan, 1998. "Statistical inference for geometric processes with lognormal distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 99-112, March.
    2. Choy, S.T. Boris & Chan, C.M., 2003. "Scale Mixtures Distributions in Insurance Applications," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 93-104, May.
    3. Choy, S. T. Boris & Walker, Stephen G., 2003. "The extended exponential power distribution and Bayesian robustness," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 227-232, November.
    4. Chan, Jennifer S.K. & Boris Choy, S.T. & Makov, Udi E., 2008. "Robust Bayesian Analysis of Loss Reserves Data Using the Generalized-t Distribution," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 207-230, May.
    5. S. Choy & A. Smith, 1997. "Hierarchical models with scale mixtures of normal distributions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 6(1), pages 205-221, June.
    6. Jennifer Chan & Doris Leung, 2010. "Binary geometric process model for the modeling of longitudinal binary data with trend," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 505-536, September.
    7. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    8. Vandna Jowaheer, 2002. "Analysing longitudinal count data with overdispersion," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 389-399, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. J.S.K. Chan & W.Y. Wan & P.L.H. Yu, 2014. "A Poisson geometric process approach for predicting drop-out and committed first-time blood donors," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 1486-1503, July.
    2. Arnold, Richard & Chukova, Stefanka & Hayakawa, Yu & Marshall, Sarah, 2020. "Geometric-Like Processes: An Overview and Some Reliability Applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
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    4. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Scotto, Manuel, 2022. "A multiplicative thinning-based integer-valued GARCH model," MPRA Paper 112475, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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