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A Bayesian conditional autoregressive geometric process model for range data

Author

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  • Chan, J.S.K.
  • Lam, C.P.Y.
  • Yu, P.L.H.
  • Choy, S.T.B.
  • Chen, C.W.S.

Abstract

Extreme value theories indicate that the range is an efficient estimator of local volatility in financial time series. A geometric process (GP) framework that incorporates the conditional autoregressive range (CARR)-type mean function is presented for range data. The proposed model, called the conditional autoregressive geometric process range (CARGPR) model, allows for flexible trend patterns, threshold effects, leverage effects, and long-memory dynamics in financial time series. For robustness considerations, a log-t distribution is adopted. Model implementation can be easily done using the WinBUGS package. A simulation study shows that model parameters are estimated with high accuracy. In the empirical study on the range data of an Australian stock market index, the CARGPR model outperforms the CARR model in both in-sample estimation and out-of-sample forecast.

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  • Chan, J.S.K. & Lam, C.P.Y. & Yu, P.L.H. & Choy, S.T.B. & Chen, C.W.S., 2012. "A Bayesian conditional autoregressive geometric process model for range data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3006-3019.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:56:y:2012:i:11:p:3006-3019
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2011.01.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Shay Kee Tan & Kok Haur Ng & Jennifer So-Kuen Chan, 2022. "Predicting Returns, Volatilities and Correlations of Stock Indices Using Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Range and Return Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Tan, Shay-Kee & Ng, Kok-Haur & Chan, Jennifer So-Kuen & Mohamed, Ibrahim, 2019. "Quantile range-based volatility measure for modelling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 537-551.
    4. Arnold, Richard & Chukova, Stefanka & Hayakawa, Yu & Marshall, Sarah, 2020. "Geometric-Like Processes: An Overview and Some Reliability Applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    5. Chan, Jennifer So Kuen & Wan, Wai Yin, 2014. "Multivariate generalized Poisson geometric process model with scale mixtures of normal distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 72-87.
    6. Chan Jennifer So Kuen & Ng Kok-Haur & Nitithumbundit Thanakorn & Peiris Shelton, 2019. "Efficient estimation of financial risk by regressing the quantiles of parametric distributions: An application to CARR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-22, April.
    7. Ng, Kok Haur & Peiris, Shelton & Chan, Jennifer So-kuen & Allen, David & Ng, Kooi Huat, 2017. "Efficient modelling and forecasting with range based volatility models and its application," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 448-460.
    8. Wu, Xinyu & Hou, Xinmeng, 2020. "Forecasting volatility with component conditional autoregressive range model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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