IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/csdana/v190y2024ics016794732300172x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fast same-step forecast in SUTSE model and its theoretical properties

Author

Listed:
  • Yoshida, Wataru
  • Hirose, Kei

Abstract

The problem of forecasting multivariate time series by a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Equations (SUTSE) model is considered. The SUTSE model usually assumes that error variables are correlated. A crucial issue is that the model estimation requires heavy computational loads because of a large matrix computation, especially for high-dimensional data. To alleviate the computational issue, a two-stage procedure for forecasting is constructed. First, Kalman filtering is performed as if the error variables are uncorrelated; that is, univariate time-series analyses are conducted separately to avoid a large matrix computation. Next, the forecast value is computed by using a distribution of forecast error. The proposed algorithm is much faster than the ordinary SUTSE model because a large matrix computation is not required. Some theoretical properties of the proposed estimator are presented, and Monte Carlo simulation is performed to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The usefulness of the proposed procedure is illustrated through a bus congestion data application.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshida, Wataru & Hirose, Kei, 2024. "Fast same-step forecast in SUTSE model and its theoretical properties," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:190:y:2024:i:c:s016794732300172x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2023.107861
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016794732300172X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.csda.2023.107861?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    2. Fernandez, F Javier & Harvey, Andrew C, 1990. "Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Equations and a Test for Homogeneity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 71-81, January.
    3. S. J. Koopman & J. Durbin, 2000. "Fast Filtering and Smoothing for Multivariate State Space Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 281-296, May.
    4. Ming Yuan & Yi Lin, 2007. "Model selection and estimation in the Gaussian graphical model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(1), pages 19-35.
    5. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    6. Filippo Moauro & Giovanni Savio, 2005. "Temporal disaggregation using multivariate structural time series models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 214-234, July.
    7. Wang, Hansheng & Leng, Chenlei, 2007. "Unified LASSO Estimation by Least Squares Approximation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1039-1048, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Strickland, Chris M. & Turner, Ian. W. & Denham, Robert & Mengersen, Kerrie L., 2009. "Efficient Bayesian estimation of multivariate state space models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4116-4125, October.
    2. Cecilia Frale, "undated". "Do Surveys Help in Macroeconomic Variables Disaggregation and Estimation?," Working Papers wp2008-2, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso & Frale, Cecilia & Mazzi, Gian Luigi, 2008. "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Moauro, Filippo, 2010. "A monthly indicator of employment in the euro area: real time analysis of indirect estimates," MPRA Paper 27797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Dec 2010.
    5. Zhang Haixiang & Zheng Yinan & Zhang Zhou & Gao Tao & Joyce Brian & Zhang Wei & Hou Lifang & Liu Lei & Yoon Grace & Schwartz Joel & Vokonas Pantel & Colicino Elena & Baccarelli Andrea, 2017. "Regularized estimation in sparse high-dimensional multivariate regression, with application to a DNA methylation study," Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 159-171, August.
    6. Pötscher, Benedikt M. & Schneider, Ulrike, 2007. "On the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator," MPRA Paper 6913, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. K. Triantafyllopoulos, 2007. "Covariance estimation for multivariate conditionally Gaussian dynamic linear models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 551-569.
    8. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," Working Papers ECARES 2008-008, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Lam, Clifford, 2008. "Estimation of large precision matrices through block penalization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 31543, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lenka Zbonakova & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Weining Wang, 2016. "Time Varying Quantile Lasso," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-047, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Umberto Amato & Anestis Antoniadis & Italia De Feis & Irene Gijbels, 2021. "Penalised robust estimators for sparse and high-dimensional linear models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 1-48, March.
    13. Caner, Mehmet & Fan, Qingliang, 2015. "Hybrid generalized empirical likelihood estimators: Instrument selection with adaptive lasso," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 256-274.
    14. Weihua Zhao & Riquan Zhang & Yazhao Lv & Jicai Liu, 2017. "Quantile regression and variable selection of single-index coefficient model," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 69(4), pages 761-789, August.
    15. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Temporal disaggregation by state space methods: Dynamic regression methods revisited," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 357-372, November.
    16. Benjamin Poignard & Manabu Asai, 2023. "Estimation of high-dimensional vector autoregression via sparse precision matrix," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 307-326.
    17. M. Dossche & G. Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/340, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. Li, Xinjue & Zboňáková, Lenka & Wang, Weining & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2019. "Combining Penalization and Adaption in High Dimension with Application in Bond Risk Premia Forecasting," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-030, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    19. Fei Jin & Lung-fei Lee, 2018. "Lasso Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Parametric Models with Singular Information Matrices," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24, February.
    20. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:190:y:2024:i:c:s016794732300172x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.