Health driven cost-benefit analysis of provincial decarbonization pathways for China's cement sector

The Chinese cement sector, contributing approximately 13 % of national CO₂ emissions and a significant share of air pollutants, is pivotal for achieving carbon neutrality. However, the question of how to develop cost-effective provincial decarbonization pathways and integrate the social cost of carbon via health burden into policy decisions remains insufficiently addressed. To address these issues, we develop an integrated assessment framework that includes dynamic material flow analysis, a provincial bottom-up energy system model, and air quality-health impact evaluation. Results indicate a projected 28 % decline in national cement demand from 2020 to 2060, with production shifting from eastern to central-southern regions. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will dominate decarbonization efforts, accounting for over 80 % of total transition costs. However, its economic feasibility varies significantly across provinces, with net cost per ton of CO₂ abated ranging from 164 to 581 CNY. Provincial-specific scenario analysis estimates cumulative transition costs at 412.9 billion CNY by 2060, equivalent to only 0.5 % of projected national investments for climate mitigation and adaptation during 2024–2030 and 0.15 % for 2031–2060. Notably, incorporating externality cost of carbon through health burden could offset net abatement costs by over 20 % in heavily polluted provinces like Henan and Shandong, and up to 45 % when combined with declining CCS costs. These findings highlight the need for region-specific strategies aligned with provincial demand and technological capacity, and for integrating health co-benefits and CCS cost dynamics into cement-sector policy to support an efficient and equitable net-zero transition.