IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v359y2024ics0306261924001028.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hybrid PV cluster power prediction model using BLS with GMCC and error correction via RVM considering an improved statistical upscaling technique

Author

Listed:
  • Qiu, Lihong
  • Ma, Wentao
  • Feng, Xiaoyang
  • Dai, Jiahui
  • Dong, Yuzhuo
  • Duan, Jiandong
  • Chen, Badong

Abstract

Accurate cluster photovoltaic power prediction (CPPP) is crucial for the operation and control of renewable energy grid-connected power systems. The traditional modeling strategies for CPPP such as direct aggregation (DA) and statistical upscaling (SU) have limitations such as error accumulation and upscaling factor uncertainty. To address these issues, this paper proposed a novel hybrid approach for CPPP by combining machine learning models with an improved SU technique. Firstly, a robust broad learning system (BLS) model, in which the Generalized Maximum Correntropy Criterion (GMCC) is used to replace the original mean square error (MSE) loss in BLS, is proposed to solve the problem of multiple outliers affecting the prediction accuracy of regional cluster stations, and it is called GBLS. Then, the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) as an effective nonlinear regression model is further utilized to compensate for the prediction errors obtained by the GBLS to form the hybrid prediction model, namely GBLS-RVM. Moreover, to mitigate the uncertainty associated with scaling factors in traditional SU strategy, a new SU strategy is developed to refine the relationship between the reference station and the cluster sub-region, enabling direct modeling for regional power prediction. Finally, data from two PV clusters in different regions of China are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and the results show that under the improved SU strategy, the GBLS-RVM model, reduced RMSE by approximately 33.7% compared to the traditional BLS model, and the RMSE decreased by 12.89% and 30.2% when compared to traditional DA and traditional SU strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiu, Lihong & Ma, Wentao & Feng, Xiaoyang & Dai, Jiahui & Dong, Yuzhuo & Duan, Jiandong & Chen, Badong, 2024. "A hybrid PV cluster power prediction model using BLS with GMCC and error correction via RVM considering an improved statistical upscaling technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:359:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924001028
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924001028
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122719?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramadhan, Raden A.A. & Heatubun, Yosca R.J. & Tan, Sek F. & Lee, Hyun-Jin, 2021. "Comparison of physical and machine learning models for estimating solar irradiance and photovoltaic power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1006-1019.
    2. Chen, Wenhe & Zhou, Hanting & Cheng, Longsheng & Xia, Min, 2023. "Prediction of regional wind power generation using a multi-objective optimized deep learning model with temporal pattern attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    3. Pierro, Marco & Gentili, Damiano & Liolli, Fabio Romano & Cornaro, Cristina & Moser, David & Betti, Alessandro & Moschella, Michela & Collino, Elena & Ronzio, Dario & van der Meer, Dennis, 2022. "Progress in regional PV power forecasting: A sensitivity analysis on the Italian case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 983-996.
    4. Ye, Lin & Dai, Binhua & Li, Zhuo & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Lu, Peng, 2022. "An ensemble method for short-term wind power prediction considering error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    5. Duan, Jiandong & Wang, Peng & Ma, Wentao & Tian, Xuan & Fang, Shuai & Cheng, Yulin & Chang, Ying & Liu, Haofan, 2021. "Short-term wind power forecasting using the hybrid model of improved variational mode decomposition and Correntropy Long Short -term memory neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    6. Zhang, Meng & Hu, Tao & Wu, Lifeng & Kang, Guoqing & Guan, Yong, 2021. "A method for capacity estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on adaptive time-shifting broad learning system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    7. Theocharides, Spyros & Makrides, George & Livera, Andreas & Theristis, Marios & Kaimakis, Paris & Georghiou, George E., 2020. "Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    8. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    9. Scott, Connor & Ahsan, Mominul & Albarbar, Alhussein, 2023. "Machine learning for forecasting a photovoltaic (PV) generation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    10. Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhen, Zhao & Jia, Mengshuo & Li, Zheng & Tang, Haiyan, 2022. "Numerical weather prediction enhanced wind power forecasting: Rank ensemble and probabilistic fluctuation awareness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    11. Yang, Yuqing & Bremner, Stephen & Menictas, Chris & Kay, Merlinde, 2022. "Forecasting error processing techniques and frequency domain decomposition for forecasting error compensation and renewable energy firming in hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    12. Elizabeth Michael, Neethu & Hasan, Shazia & Al-Durra, Ahmed & Mishra, Manohar, 2022. "Short-term solar irradiance forecasting based on a novel Bayesian optimized deep Long Short-Term Memory neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    13. Xu, Xuefang & Hu, Shiting & Shi, Peiming & Shao, Huaishuang & Li, Ruixiong & Li, Zhi, 2023. "Natural phase space reconstruction-based broad learning system for short-term wind speed prediction: Case studies of an offshore wind farm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    14. Li, Pengtao & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui & Yang, Shanlin, 2020. "A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    15. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Shaker, Hamid & Manfre, Daniel & Zareipour, Hamidreza, 2020. "Forecasting the aggregated output of a large fleet of small behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic sites," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 1861-1869.
    17. Brester, Christina & Kallio-Myers, Viivi & Lindfors, Anders V. & Kolehmainen, Mikko & Niska, Harri, 2023. "Evaluating neural network models in site-specific solar PV forecasting using numerical weather prediction data and weather observations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 266-274.
    18. Yu, Guangzheng & Liu, Chengquan & Tang, Bo & Chen, Rusi & Lu, Liu & Cui, Chaoyue & Hu, Yue & Shen, Lingxu & Muyeen, S.M., 2022. "Short term wind power prediction for regional wind farms based on spatial-temporal characteristic distribution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 599-612.
    19. Wen, Lulu & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Lu, Xinhui, 2019. "Optimal load dispatch of community microgrid with deep learning based solar power and load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1053-1065.
    20. Wang, Fei & Lu, Xiaoxing & Mei, Shengwei & Su, Ying & Zhen, Zhao & Zou, Zubing & Zhang, Xuemin & Yin, Rui & Duić, Neven & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Catalão, João P.S., 2022. "A satellite image data based ultra-short-term solar PV power forecasting method considering cloud information from neighboring plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    21. Bisoi, Ranjeeta & Dash, Deepak Ranjan & Dash, P.K. & Tripathy, Lokanath, 2022. "An efficient robust optimized functional link broad learning system for solar irradiance prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    22. Simeunović, Jelena & Schubnel, Baptiste & Alet, Pierre-Jean & Carrillo, Rafael E. & Frossard, Pascal, 2022. "Interpretable temporal-spatial graph attention network for multi-site PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    23. Zhang, Jiaan & Liu, Dong & Li, Zhijun & Han, Xu & Liu, Hui & Dong, Cun & Wang, Junyan & Liu, Chenyu & Xia, Yunpeng, 2021. "Power prediction of a wind farm cluster based on spatiotemporal correlations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    2. Liu, Ling & Wang, Jujie & Li, Jianping & Wei, Lu, 2023. "An online transfer learning model for wind turbine power prediction based on spatial feature construction and system-wide update," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    3. Huang, Congzhi & Yang, Mengyuan, 2023. "Memory long and short term time series network for ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Zifa Liu & Xinyi Li & Haiyan Zhao, 2023. "Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Feature Analysis and Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Franko Pandžić & Tomislav Capuder, 2023. "Advances in Short-Term Solar Forecasting: A Review and Benchmark of Machine Learning Methods and Relevant Data Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Wang, Yun & Song, Mengmeng & Yang, Dazhi, 2024. "Local-global feature-based spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting with a sparse and dynamic graph," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    8. Mirza, Adeel Feroz & Mansoor, Majad & Usman, Muhammad & Ling, Qiang, 2023. "A comprehensive approach for PV wind forecasting by using a hyperparameter tuned GCVCNN-MRNN deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    9. Zhang, Yagang & Zhang, Jinghui & Yu, Leyi & Pan, Zhiya & Feng, Changyou & Sun, Yiqian & Wang, Fei, 2022. "A short-term wind energy hybrid optimal prediction system with denoising and novel error correction technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    10. Sabarathinam Srinivasan & Suresh Kumarasamy & Zacharias E. Andreadakis & Pedro G. Lind, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Models of Power Grids Driven by Renewable Energy Sources: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-56, July.
    11. Lai, Wenzhe & Zhen, Zhao & Wang, Fei & Fu, Wenjie & Wang, Junlong & Zhang, Xudong & Ren, Hui, 2024. "Sub-region division based short-term regional distributed PV power forecasting method considering spatio-temporal correlations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    12. Hu, Yusha & Man, Yi, 2023. "Energy consumption and carbon emissions forecasting for industrial processes: Status, challenges and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    13. Qu, Zhijian & Hou, Xinxing & Li, Jian & Hu, Wenbo, 2024. "Short-term wind farm cluster power prediction based on dual feature extraction and quadratic decomposition aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    14. Cheng, Lilin & Zang, Haixiang & Wei, Zhinong & Zhang, Fengchun & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Evaluation of opaque deep-learning solar power forecast models towards power-grid applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 960-972.
    15. Zhang, Le & Zhu, Jizhong & Zhang, Di & Liu, Yun, 2023. "An incremental photovoltaic power prediction method considering concept drift and privacy protection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    16. Şahin, Utkucan & Ballı, Serkan & Chen, Yan, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal electricity generation in European countries under Covid-19-induced lockdown using fractional grey prediction models and machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    17. Martina Radicioni & Valentina Lucaferri & Francesco De Lia & Antonino Laudani & Roberto Lo Presti & Gabriele Maria Lozito & Francesco Riganti Fulginei & Riccardo Schioppo & Mario Tucci, 2021. "Power Forecasting of a Photovoltaic Plant Located in ENEA Casaccia Research Center," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, January.
    18. Liu, Xiangjie & Liu, Yuanyan & Kong, Xiaobing & Ma, Lele & Besheer, Ahmad H. & Lee, Kwang Y., 2023. "Deep neural network for forecasting of photovoltaic power based on wavelet packet decomposition with similar day analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    19. Cui, Xiwen & Yu, Xiaoyu & Niu, Dongxiao, 2024. "The ultra-short-term wind power point-interval forecasting model based on improved variational mode decomposition and bidirectional gated recurrent unit improved by improved sparrow search algorithm a," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    20. Ye, Lin & Li, Yilin & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Li, Zhuo & Lu, Peng, 2022. "A novel integrated method for short-term wind power forecasting based on fluctuation clustering and history matching," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:359:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924001028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.