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Development of an integrated bi-level model for China’s multi-regional energy system planning under uncertainty

Author

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  • Gong, J.W.
  • Li, Y.P.
  • Lv, J.
  • Huang, G.H.
  • Suo, C.
  • Gao, P.P.

Abstract

Climate change mitigation and renewable resources utilization are becoming particularly urgent for energy system management. In this study, a bi-level joint-probabilistic programming (BJPP) method is developed for planning multi-regional energy system under different mitigation policies and uncertainties. BJPP can handle leader–follower issues in decision-making process as well as examine the risk of violating joint-probabilistic constraints. Based on the BJPP method, a China’s multi-regional energy system (named as BJPP_CMES) model is formulated to provide optimal scheme for energy system planning of China over a long-term horizon (2021–2050) by synergistically minimizing carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and system cost. A series of scenarios associated with different carbon capture and storage (CCS) levels and violation risks of energy-demand constraints are examined. Results reveal that: (i) the share of non-fossil energy in China’s energy supply would keep increasing in 2021–2050, and the highest growth of the renewable supply would occur in Ningxia (rising 47.7%); (ii) Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu would be the top three suppliers of renewable electricity; (iii) the CO2 emission of China would reach a peak of [44.3, 54.8] billion tonnes during the period of 2026–2030; Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi would be main contributors of CO2 emission in the future; (iv) compared with the single-level model, the CO2 emission from the BJPP_CMES model would reduce by [2.7, 5.7]%; (v) among developed regions, the individual probability level of Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai is the most significant parameter for both CO2 emission and system cost. The findings are helpful for decision makers to optimize multi-regional energy system (MES) with a low-carbon and cost-effective manner, as well as to provide useful information for renewable energy utilization and regional sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, J.W. & Li, Y.P. & Lv, J. & Huang, G.H. & Suo, C. & Gao, P.P., 2022. "Development of an integrated bi-level model for China’s multi-regional energy system planning under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:308:y:2022:i:c:s0306261921015580
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118299
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    5. Shuangshuang Zhou & Juan Yang & Shiwei Yu, 2022. "A Stochastic Multi-Objective Model for China’s Provincial Generation-Mix Planning: Considering Variable Renewable and Transmission Capacity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-26, April.

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