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Forecasting tourism recovery with multifactor insights – A case of post-pandemic Chinese outbound tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jingrui
  • Xie, Weihong
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Gao, Jialu
  • Zhang, Linyue
  • Wang, Jiyang
  • Li, Shoujiang

Abstract

Given the suddenness and unpredictability of “Black Swan” events causing severe fluctuations in tourism, it is crucial to accurately predict tourist arrivals. This study developed a method combining multifactor modeling to solve this challenge. Because of the complex factors affecting tourism such as economy, policy, and behavioral preferences, particularly pandemics, an innovative tourism recovery coefficient was formulated. Furthermore, a combined prediction framework was built considering correlations and changes by screening variables and models. Empirical results revealed that this work considered systematic analysis and dynamic prediction of the influencing factors of tourism demand and improved the prediction accuracy. It provided policymakers with a flexible tool for predicting tourism, highlighting the importance of integrating variables and adjustment mechanisms in post-crisis tourism forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jingrui & Xie, Weihong & Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Jialu & Zhang, Linyue & Wang, Jiyang & Li, Shoujiang, 2026. "Forecasting tourism recovery with multifactor insights – A case of post-pandemic Chinese outbound tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:116:y:2026:i:c:s0160738325001951
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2025.104089
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    References listed on IDEAS

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