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Affective forecasting and travel decision-making: An investigation in times of a pandemic

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  • Karl, Marion
  • Kock, Florian
  • Ritchie, Brent W.
  • Gauss, Jana

Abstract

People mentally simulate future events, visualise themselves in these events, and then make predictions about how they would feel. This process is referred to as affective forecasting. Tourism lends itself toward affective forecasting because holiday experiences are not tangible and difficult to judge upfront. The authors conceptualise and empirically examine the mental simulation and affective forecasting in tourist decision-making. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a proof of concept, they employ an experimental research design to demonstrate that affective forecasting can mitigate risk perceptions and travel decision-making in times of a pandemic. The findings highlight how affective forecasting can be leveraged to predict and change travel behaviour in the aftermath of pandemics, though implications reach beyond this context.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl, Marion & Kock, Florian & Ritchie, Brent W. & Gauss, Jana, 2021. "Affective forecasting and travel decision-making: An investigation in times of a pandemic," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:87:y:2021:i:c:s0160738321000013
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Anne Köchling & Martin Lohmann, 2022. "Assessing pre-travel online destination experience values of destination websites: scale development and validation," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 457-484, December.
    3. Sariişik Mehmet & Kapucuoğlu Mustafa İnanç & Ceylan Veli, 2023. "Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel behavior: A case study of domestic inbound travelers in Turkey," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 211-224, December.
    4. Noveri Maulana & Rifelly Dewi Astuti & Hariyadi B. Sukamdani & Prijono Tjiptoherijanto, 2022. "Risk Perception in the Post COVID-19 Pandemic Era: An Analysis of Tourist Accommodation and Travel Behavior in the New Normal Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    5. José F Baños-Pino & David Boto-García & Eduardo Del Valle & Inés Sustacha, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on tourists’ length of stay and daily expenditures," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 437-459, March.

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