IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v281y2023ics0378377423001026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of historical droughts on maize and soybean production in the southeastern United States

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen, Hai
  • Thompson, Allen
  • Costello, Christine

Abstract

The trend of yield losses to drought in United States (U.S.) agriculture has increased over the years, in spite of financial investments and technological development to alleviate drought impacts. As climate change threatens to worsen future drought conditions, it is crucial to evaluate drought impacts on crop production for efficient yet robust decision-making at the regional level. This study evaluated the robustness of modified Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPIs) using effective precipitation (EP) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in assessing drought impacts on county-level maize and soybean yields in the southeastern U.S during 1979–2019. The results showed that the modified SPI using the CROPWAT EP formula can be as effective as SPEI in assessing drought impacts on crop production. Assessment of drought impacts on crop yield year-to-year variability was then assessed by fitting linear regression through the yield-drought time series. Probability of yield loss due to drought in the region was estimated by using a copula-based probabilistic model. Results show that drought events occurring during the critical development growth stage had significantly negative impacts on year-to-year yield variability in over 50% of the counties in the study region, though the impact magnitude varied across the region due to different characteristics, historical climatic condition and irrigation infrastructure. On average, an extremely dry event occurring during the critical development growth stage resulted in a region-wide average yield reduction between − 42.7% and − 31.9% for maize and between − 25.4% and − 23.4% for soybean. Moderately wet conditions may increase crop yield, but excessively wet conditions may diminish the benefits for both crops. The average probability of yield loss of the study region under the extremely dry condition is more than 80%. Irrigation may help to reduce the impacts of drought on crop production: maize-producing irrigated counties on average were found to be 50% less sensitive to drought than non-irrigated counties, though this effect is smaller for soybean. As crop production in the region is highly vulnerable to drought, adaptation interventions under are required to adapt to warming climate scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Hai & Thompson, Allen & Costello, Christine, 2023. "Impacts of historical droughts on maize and soybean production in the southeastern United States," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:281:y:2023:i:c:s0378377423001026
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108237
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377423001026
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108237?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    2. David B. Lobell & Graeme L. Hammer & Greg McLean & Carlos Messina & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 497-501, May.
    3. Francisco Ralston Fonseca & Paulina Jaramillo & Mario Bergés & Edson Severnini, 2019. "Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 435-451, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tianli Wang & Yanji Ma & Siqi Luo, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Soybean Production in Heilongjiang Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Rodrigo Cornacini Ferreira & Rubson Natal Ribeiro Sibaldelli & Luis Guilherme Teixeira Crusiol & Norman Neumaier & José Renato Bouças Farias, 2024. "Soybean Yield Losses Related to Drought Events in Brazil: Spatial–Temporal Trends over Five Decades and Management Strategies," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-30, November.
    3. Shi, Shanheng & Zhou, Shiwei & Lei, Yongdeng & Harrison, Matthew Tom & Liu, Ke & Chen, Fu & Yin, Xiaogang, 2024. "Burgeoning food demand outpaces sustainable water supply in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    4. Gauri Sreekumar & Sabuj Kumar Mandal, 2024. "Impact of drought on out-migration among rural farm households in India: does participation in non-farm activities and access to irrigation make any difference?," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 525-558, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balázs Varga & Zsuzsanna Farkas & Emese Varga-László & Gyula Vida & Ottó Veisz, 2022. "Elevated Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Influences the Rooting Habits of Winter-Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) Varieties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Mulubrhan Amare & Priyanka Parvathi & Trung Thanh Nguyen, 2023. "Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(1), pages 69-87, March.
    3. Magdalena Cornejo & Nicolás Merener & Ezequiel Merovich, 2024. "Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices," Working Papers 303, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Joshua D. Woodard & Leslie J. Verteramo‐Chiu, 2017. "Efficiency Impacts of Utilizing Soil Data in the Pricing of the Federal Crop Insurance Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 99(3), pages 757-772, April.
    5. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "Climate, Agriculture and Food," Papers 2105.12044, arXiv.org.
    6. Simin Deng & Xuezhi Tan & Bingjun Liu, 2025. "Impacts of changes in climate extremes on maize yields over Mainland China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 17(1), pages 185-205, February.
    7. Amare, Mulubrhan & Balana, Bedru, 2023. "Climate change, income sources, crop mix, and input use decisions: Evidence from Nigeria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    8. Lecerf, Rémi & Ceglar, Andrej & López-Lozano, Raúl & Van Der Velde, Marijn & Baruth, Bettina, 2019. "Assessing the information in crop model and meteorological indicators to forecast crop yield over Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 191-202.
    9. Schmitt, Jonas & Offermann, Frank & Söder, Mareike & Frühauf, Cathleen & Finger, Robert, 2022. "Extreme weather events cause significant crop yield losses at the farm level in German agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    10. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    11. El-Saied E. Metwaly & Hatim M. Al-Yasi & Esmat F. Ali & Hamada A. Farouk & Saad Farouk, 2022. "Deteriorating Harmful Effects of Drought in Cucumber by Spraying Glycinebetaine," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, December.
    12. repec:ags:aaea22:335489 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit, 2024. "Historical Analysis of the Effects of Drought on Rice and Maize Yields in Southeast Asia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Liu, Zhipeng & Jiao, Xiyun & Zhu, Chengli & Katul, Gabriel G. & Ma, Junyong & Guo, Weihua, 2021. "Micro-climatic and crop responses to micro-sprinkler irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    15. Teresa Armada Brás & Jonas Jägermeyr & Júlia Seixas, 2019. "Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1373-1393, December.
    16. Srihari Sundar & Michael T. Craig & Ashley E. Payne & David J. Brayshaw & Flavio Lehner, 2023. "Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Yusifzada, Tural, 2022. "Response of Inflation to the Climate Stress: Evidence from Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 116522, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2022.
    18. Dániel Fróna & János Szenderák & Mónika Harangi-Rákos, 2019. "The Challenge of Feeding the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-18, October.
    19. Timothy Neal & Michael Keane, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: The Roles of Adaptation Techniques and Emissions Reductions," Discussion Papers 2018-08, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    21. Shekhar, Ankit & Shapiro, Charles A., 2022. "Prospective crop yield and income return based on a retrospective analysis of a long-term rainfed agriculture experiment in Nebraska," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:281:y:2023:i:c:s0378377423001026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.