Temporal and spatial modelling of tropical deforestation: a survival analysis linking satellite and household survey data
We estimate a spatially explicit model of the forest clearance process among smallholder farmers in an agricultural frontier of southern Mexico. Our analysis takes as its point of departure a simple utility-maximising model that suggests many possible determinants of deforestation in an economic environment characterised by missing or thin markets. Hypotheses from the model are tested on a data set that combines a time series of satellite imagery with data collected from a survey of farm households whose agricultural plots were geo-referenced using a global positioning system (GPS). We implement a survival analysis to identify the effect of household level explanatory variables on the probability of deforestation. This approach allows us to introduce a measure of the time until clearance as a covariate, thereby affording a control for the effect of potentially important explanatory variables that vary through time but are not directly observable. In addition to identifying several variables relevant for policy analysis, including household demographics, proximity to roads, and government provision of agricultural support, model results suggest that the deforestation process is characterised by non-linear duration dependence, with the probability of forest clearance first decreasing and then increasing with the passage of time. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elena G. Irwin & Nancy E. Bockstael, 2001. "The Problem of Identifying Land Use Spillovers: Measuring the Effects of Open Space on Residential Property Values," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 698-704.
- Coomes, Oliver T. & Grimard, Franque & Burt, Graeme J., 2000. "Tropical forests and shifting cultivation: secondary forest fallow dynamics among traditional farmers of the Peruvian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 109-124, January.
- Steven Were Omamo, 1998. "Transport Costs and Smallholder Cropping Choices: An Application to Siaya District, Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 116-123.
- Nigel Key & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain De Janvry, 2000. "Transactions Costs and Agricultural Household Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 245-259.
- Saha, Atanu, 1994. "A two-season agricultural household model of output and price uncertainty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 245-269, December.
- Gerald C. Nelson & GVirginia Harris & Steven W. Stone, 2001. "Deforestation, Land Use, and Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Darién, Panama," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(2), pages 187-205.
- Pfaff, Alexander S. P., 1999. "What Drives Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?: Evidence from Satellite and Socioeconomic Data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 26-43, January.
- Gerald C. Nelson & Daniel Hellerstein, 1997.
"Do Roads Cause Deforestation? Using Satellite Images in Econometric Analysis of Land Use,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 80-88.
- Nelson, Gerald & Hellerstein, Daniel, 1997. "Do roads cause deforestation? Using satellite images in econometric analysis of land use," MPRA Paper 25261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Anderson Medellin, M & Apedaile, L P & Pachico, D, 1994. "Commercialization and Price Response of a Bean-Growing Farming System in Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(4), pages 795-816, July.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Yang, Dennis, 1995.
"Education and Off-Farm Work,"
95-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Benjamin, Dwayne, 1992. "Household Composition, Labor Markets, and Labor Demand: Testing for Separation in Agricultural Household Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 287-322, March.
- Chomitz, Kenneth M & Gray, David A, 1996. "Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 487-512, September.
- Maureen Cropper & Charles Griffiths & Muthukumara Mani, 1999. "Roads, Population Pressures, and Deforestation in Thailand, 1976-1989," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 75(1), pages 58-73.
- Hyde, William F & Amacher, Gregory S & Magrath, William, 1996. "Deforestation and Forest Land Use: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(2), pages 223-48, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:27:y:2002:i:3:p:317-332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.