IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2024-01-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crude Oil Prices and the Egyptian Economy Evidence from the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Khaled Bataineh

    (Faculty of Business, Yarmouk University, Jordan)

Abstract

This paper investigates two important things; the role of crude oil prices in explaining the Egyptian stock market return, and what factors derive from Egyptian crude oil prices. Using 6 log difference time series variables this paper finds that multiple regression is an inappropriate model to test the two goals mentioned above. On the other hand, using Vector Autoregression (VAR Model) is much more profitable in achieving the paper’s goals. Although the VAR model results are more reliable, crude oil price fails to explain the Egyptian stock market return because Egypt is not a big oil exporter. Furthermore, the VAR model shows that the Energy sector index, stock world index (S and P 500 the proxy), stock exchange index, exchange rate, and the global financial crisis are all factors that derive and determine the Egyptian crude oil price.

Suggested Citation

  • Khaled Bataineh, 2024. "Crude Oil Prices and the Egyptian Economy Evidence from the Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 383-392, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2024-01-41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/15198/7682
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/15198
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    3. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    4. Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeş & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "On the Linkage between the Energy Market and Stock Returns: Evidence from Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, April.
    5. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane, 2016. "Relationship between oil, stock prices and exchange rates: A vine copula based GARCH method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 458-471.
    6. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    7. Cao, Hong & Guo, Litian & Zhang, Lin, 2020. "Does oil price uncertainty affect renewable energy firms’ investment? Evidence from listed firms in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    8. Adekunle, Wasiu & Bagudo, Abubakar M. & Odumosu, Monsuru & Inuolaji, Suraj B., 2020. "Predicting stock returns using crude oil prices: A firm level analysis of Nigeria's oil and gas sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singhal, Shelly & Choudhary, Sangita & Biswal, Pratap Chandra, 2019. "Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-261.
    2. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Wen, Shaobo & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2017. "The multiscale impact of exchange rates on the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from China and Russia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 667-678.
    3. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    4. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
    5. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Rocío Durán Vázquez & Leticia Armenta Fraire, 2012. "Conditional Correlation Between Oil and Stock Market Returns: The Case of Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 7(1), pages 49-63, Enero-Jun.
    6. Ferreira, Paulo & Pereira, Éder & Silva, Marcus, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    7. Broadstock, David C. & Cao, Hong & Zhang, Dayong, 2012. "Oil shocks and their impact on energy related stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1888-1895.
    8. Yen-Hsien Lee & Ting-Huei Liao & Ya-Ling Huang & Tzu-Ling Huang, 2015. "Dynamic Spillovers between Oil and Stock Markets: New Approaches at Spillover Index," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 178-189, April.
    9. Wei, Yanfeng, 2019. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 20-31.
    10. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    11. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Rocío Durán Vázquez & Leticia Armenta Fraire, 2012. "Conditional Correlation Between Oil and Stock Market Returns: The Case of Mexico," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, October.
    12. Shahrestani, Parnia & Rafei, Meysam, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on Tehran Stock Exchange returns: Application of the Markov switching vector autoregressive models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    14. Kirkulak-Uludag, Berna & Safarzadeh, Omid, 2018. "The interactions between OPEC oil price and sectoral stock returns: Evidence from China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 631-641.
    15. Areli Bermudez Delgado, Nancy & Bermudez Delgado, Estefanía & Saucedo, Eduardo, 2018. "The relationship between oil prices, the stock market and the exchange rate: Evidence from Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 266-275.
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Ferreira, Paulo & Pereira, Éder Johson de Area Leão & Silva, Marcus Fernandes da & Pereira, Hernane Borges, 2019. "Detrended correlation coefficients between oil and stock markets: The effect of the 2008 crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 86-96.
    18. Zhang, Dayong, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets revisited: Measuring connectedness from a global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 323-333.
    19. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock price returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," MPRA Paper 80495, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude Oil Price; Vector Autoregression (VAR Model); Egyptian Stock Market Return; Oil Exporter; Energy Sector Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2024-01-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.