IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2023-06-6.html

Through-the-cycle to Point-in-time Probabilities of Default Conversion: Inconsistencies in the Vasicek Approach

Author

Listed:
  • L. J. Basson

    (School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand, 1 Jan Smuts Ave, Braamfontein, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa.)

  • Gary van Vuuren

    (School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand, 1 Jan Smuts Ave, Braamfontein, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa.)

Abstract

While regulators generate and advocate the use of through the cycle (TtC) probabilities of default (PDs) for regulatory capital calculations, accounting standards (such as IFRs9) require organisations to use point in time (PiT) PDs. TtC PDs are based on long-term average conditions and do not adequately capture current credit risk conditions, underestimating credit losses during economic downturns or periods of financial stress. PiT PDs reflect the specific risk conditions prevailing at a given moment in time and provide a more granular assessment of credit risk. While many techniques measure PiT PDs directly, mathematical approaches also exist which convert TtC PDs into PiT PDs. PiT PDs are also routinely forecasted, projected into the future to allow estimation of the present value of future possible credit-related losses. Vasicek’s (1987) model is in common use for this purpose. Using a stylistic range of possible input values for Vasicek’s model, loan credit quality is found to be differentially affected (improving for some and deteriorating for others) for some of these values. This is counterintuitive and reflects a functional flaw in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • L. J. Basson & Gary van Vuuren, 2023. "Through-the-cycle to Point-in-time Probabilities of Default Conversion: Inconsistencies in the Vasicek Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 13(6), pages 42-52, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2023-06-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/15079/7615
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/15079
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Domotor & Ferenc Ill'es, 2025. "Through-the-Cycle PD Estimation Under Incomplete Data -- A Single Risk Factor Approach," Papers 2508.15651, arXiv.org.
    2. Ján Boháčik, 2025. "Incorporating macroeconomic conditions into corporate probability of default under IFRS 9," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 760-785, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    2. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    3. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2013. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 452-490.
    4. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2010. "Rating systems, procyclicality and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 33-49, January.
    5. Olivier Bruno & Alexandra Girod, 2013. "Procyclicality and Bank Portfolio Risk Level under a Constant Leverage Ratio," GREDEG Working Papers 2013-35, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    6. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," FMG Discussion Papers dp450, Financial Markets Group.
    7. Katsutoshi Shimizu & Kim Cuong Ly, 2018. "Did Basel regulations cause a significant procyclicality?," Working Papers 2018-06, Swansea University, School of Management.
    8. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, September.
    9. Nguyet Thi Minh Phi & Hanh Thi Hong Hoang & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2019. "The Basel Capital Requirement, Lending Interest Rate, and Aggregate Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Viet Nam," ADBI Working Papers 916, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Conrad Beyers & Kojo A. Essel‐Mensah & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2024. "A computable general equilibrium model of the monetary policy implications for financial stability in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 92(4), pages 415-443, December.
    11. Petr Jakubik, 2008. "Credit risk and stress testing of the Czech Banking Sector," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 107-123.
    12. Henrik Andersen, 2009. "Norwegian banks in a recession: Procyclical implications of Basel II," Working Paper 2009/04, Norges Bank.
    13. Simona Malovana, 2018. "The Pro-Cyclicality of Risk Weights for Credit Exposures in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2018/12, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    14. Garcia-Barragan, Fernando & Liu, Guangling, 2018. "Welfare analysis of bank capital requirements with endogenous default," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 15-29.
    15. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
    16. Fabrizio Fabi & Sebastiano Laviola & Paolo Marullo Reedtz, 2004. "The treatment of SMEs loans in the New Basel Capital Accord: some evaluations," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(228), pages 29-70.
    17. Maarten R.C. Van Oordt, 2023. "Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market‐Based Stress Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 465-501, March.
    18. Sreejata Banerjee & Malathi Velamuri, 2015. "The conundrum of profitability versus soundness for banks by ownership type: Evidence from the Indian banking sector," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 12-24, September.
    19. Fatma Chakroun & Fathi Abid, 2015. "Optimal CAR simulation," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-31, December.
    20. Beltratti, Andrea & Paladino, Giovanna, 2013. "Why do banks optimize risk weights? The relevance of the cost of equity capital," MPRA Paper 46410, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2023-06-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Monica Sinhat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.