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Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility of Somali Shilling Against US Dollar by Utilizing GARCH Models

Author

Listed:
  • Abdullahi Osman Ali

    (Puntland Ministry of Finance, Garowe, Somalia)

Abstract

The main aim of this investigation was to model the volatility of Somali shilling against US dollar by using monthly data covering from 1950 to 2010. Further to that, this finding has adopted both symmetric and asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) family models in order to capture volatility clustering and leverage effect as the most stylized facts of exchange rate returns. Result from ARCH indicates presence of conditional heteroscedasticity in the residual series of exchange rate. Symmetric GARCH(1,1) model shows presence of volatility clustering and persistent coefficients of greater than one indicating that volatility is an explosive process. Results from asymmetric TCHARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) indicates presence of leverage effect in the series of exchange rate where positive news have large effect on volatility than bad news of same magnitude. This study has an important implication to investors, business and risk managers. Nevertheless, this study suggests monetary authority to print new currency and de-dollarize the economy in order to be able influence exchange rate volatility. The outcome from this finding also suggests that GARCH family models sufficiently capture the volatility of Somali shilling against US dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullahi Osman Ali, 2021. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility of Somali Shilling Against US Dollar by Utilizing GARCH Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 35-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2021-02-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2016. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 181-191, September.
    2. Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 2000. "Full Dollarization: The Pros and Cons," IMF Economic Issues 2000/004, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; Somali shilling; US dollar; conditional heteroscedasticity; volatility clustering and leverage effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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