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Green supply chains at risk: measuring the true economic and environmental costs

Author

Listed:
  • Boeckelmann, Lukas
  • Martins, Bernardo De Castro
  • Meunier, Baptiste
  • Borin, Alessandro
  • Conteduca, Francesco Paolo
  • Mancini, Michele
  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia

Abstract

Our new methodology builds an inter-country input-output table that distinguishes green products from the rest, allowing us to assess vulnerabilities in green value chains. In a multi-country, multi-sector model, our table reveals that a decoupling of green supply chains between a US-centric West and a China-centric East could globally cut trade in green products by up to 20%, lower welfare by up to 3% and raise yearly global greenhouse gas emissions by about 50 million tonnes. JEL Classification: C67, F13, F18, F51, Q48

Suggested Citation

  • Boeckelmann, Lukas & Martins, Bernardo De Castro & Meunier, Baptiste & Borin, Alessandro & Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Mancini, Michele & Attinasi, Maria Grazia, 2026. "Green supply chains at risk: measuring the true economic and environmental costs," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 141.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2026:0141:
    Note: 930374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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