IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mnb/finrev/v24y2025i2p27-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geoeconomic Fragmentation in the Western Balkans

Author

Listed:
  • Tamas Ginter

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Andrassy University Budapest)

Abstract

Geoeconomic fragmentation has become one of the timeliest topics in international economics. This paper focuses on geoeconomic fragmentation in the Western Balkans by applying a descriptive analysis of trade flows with each of the region's major trading partners between 2010 and 2023. In addition to painting a detailed picture of the trading partner structures of the economies in the region, I examine whether geoeconomic fragmentation (growing trade within a geopolitical bloc) can be identified. I find that the Western Balkans trades predominantly with the EU and intraregionally. Trade patterns with Russia and China show mixed signs, and there are no clear signs of geoeconomic fragmentation. Thus, this paper supports the literature stating that so far in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, geoeconomic fragmentation has rather been a possible policy narrative than an economic reality.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamas Ginter, 2025. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation in the Western Balkans," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 24(2), pages 27-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:24:y:2025:i:2:p:27-46
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/sw/static/file/fer-24-2-st2-ginter.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamas Ginter & Patrik Tischler, 2024. "Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrad Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 23(2), pages 56-82.
    2. Gopinath, Gita & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Topalova, Petia, 2025. "Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ando,Mitsuyo & Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Kimura,Fukunari & Mukunoki,Hiroshi, 2025. "Friend- and Near-Shoring in Factories America, Asia, and Europe amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions," IDE Discussion Papers 973, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Alen Mulabdic & Gaurav Nayyar, 2024. "Is the U.S. Friend-Shoring, Nearshoring, or Reshoring ? Evidence from Greenfield Investment Announcements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11006, The World Bank.
    3. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
    4. Christopher Clayton & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger, 2025. "Putting Economics Back into Geoeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    6. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Josefin Meyer & Christoph Trebesch & Jiaxian Zhou Wu, 2025. "Hegemony and International Alignment," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 115, pages 593-598, May.
    7. Shekhar Aiyar & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," CAMA Working Papers 2024-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Kagerer, B., 2024. "Geopolitics and corporate risk: Evidence from EU-Russia conflict shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2471, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Fetzer, Thiemo & Lambert, Peter John & Feld, Bennet & Garg, Prashant, 2024. "AI-Generated Production Networks : Measurement and Applications to Global Trade," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1528, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Barattieri, Alessandro & Mattoo, Aaditya & Taglioni, Daria, 2025. "Trade effects of industrial policies: Are preferential agreements a shield?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 830-841.
    11. De Haas, Ralph & Popov, Alexander & Mamonov, Mikhail & Shala, Iliriana, 2025. "Violent conflict and cross-border lending," Working Paper Series 3073, European Central Bank.
    12. Steven A. Altman & Caroline R. Bastian & Davis Fattedad, 2024. "Challenging the deglobalization narrative: Global flows have remained resilient through successive shocks," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(4), pages 416-439, December.
    13. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simona Giglioli & Claire Giordano & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2025. "Trade fragmentation unveiled: five facts on the reconfiguration of global, US and EU trade," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 52(3), pages 535-557, September.
    14. Catherine Casanova & Eugenio Cerutti & Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, 2024. "Chinese Banks and their EMDE Borrowers: Have Their Relationships Changed in Times of Geoeconomic Fragmentation," BIS Working Papers 1213, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Andreas Baur, 2024. "Geoeconomics and Foreign Economic Policy – Quo Vadis EU?," EconPol Policy Brief 63, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Garcia William Connell & Ho Victor, 2025. "External Vulnerability Index: A Tool to Assess Trade Weaknesses," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 60(1), pages 40-45.
    17. Clayton, Christopher & Coppola, Antonio & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse, 2025. "Chokepoints: Identifying Economic Pressure," SocArXiv zsc4x_v1, Center for Open Science.
    18. Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta & Robert W. Staiger, 2024. "Geopolitics and the World Trading System," NBER Working Papers 33293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Khalil, Makram & Osten, David & Strobel, Felix, 2025. "Trade dynamics under geopolitical risk," Discussion Papers 03/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Asier Minondo, 2024. "El desempeño exportador de España: claves de un éxito," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2024-32, FEDEA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:24:y:2025:i:2:p:27-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Morvay Endre The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Morvay Endre to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.