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Geoeconomic Fragmentation in the Western Balkans

Author

Listed:
  • Tamas Ginter

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Andrassy University Budapest)

Abstract

Geoeconomic fragmentation has become one of the timeliest topics in international economics. This paper focuses on geoeconomic fragmentation in the Western Balkans by applying a descriptive analysis of trade flows with each of the region's major trading partners between 2010 and 2023. In addition to painting a detailed picture of the trading partner structures of the economies in the region, I examine whether geoeconomic fragmentation (growing trade within a geopolitical bloc) can be identified. I find that the Western Balkans trades predominantly with the EU and intraregionally. Trade patterns with Russia and China show mixed signs, and there are no clear signs of geoeconomic fragmentation. Thus, this paper supports the literature stating that so far in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, geoeconomic fragmentation has rather been a possible policy narrative than an economic reality.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamas Ginter, 2025. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation in the Western Balkans," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 24(2), pages 27-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:24:y:2025:i:2:p:27-46
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beata Javorcik & Lucas Kitzmüller & Helena Schweiger & Muhammed A. Yıldırım, 2024. "Economic costs of friendshoring," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7), pages 2871-2908, July.
    2. Gopinath, Gita & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Topalova, Petia, 2025. "Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Tamas Ginter & Patrik Tischler, 2024. "Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrad Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 23(2), pages 56-82.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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