IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-25-00141.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geopolitics and investment cycles in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Bahar Ulupinar

    (West Chester University of PA)

  • Isa Camyar

    (St. Francis College, Brooklyn)

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between geopolitical crises and investment cycles in the United States. Using a novel dataset on geopolitical crises over the period of 1960 to 2019, we find that the dimensionality of geopolitical crises (duration, intensity and scope) and the temporal nature of their impact (short-run versus long-run) need to be properly considered when studying the implications of these crises for investment. Our analysis also suggests that geopolitical crises can boost investment spending in the U.S. economy if the United States is not directly involved in them.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahar Ulupinar & Isa Camyar, 2025. "Geopolitics and investment cycles in the United States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(2), pages 1013-1028.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-25-00141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I2-P88.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bradford, Bruce M. & Robison, H. David, 1997. "Abnormal returns, risk, and financial statement data: The case of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 193-204.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2010. "The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 671-684, November.
    3. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for South African stock returns? A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 825-831.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2008. "Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 998-1010, May.
    7. Niederhoffer, Victor, 1971. "The Analysis of World Events and Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(2), pages 193-219, April.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    11. Le, Anh-Tuan & Tran, Thao Phuong, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment? Evidence from emerging countries in Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 532-541, October.
    13. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
    14. Hartman, Richard, 1976. "Factor Demand with Output Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 675-681, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony, 2021. "Oil price changes, uncertainty, and geopolitical risks: On the resilience of GCC countries to global tensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    2. Xinjie Wang & Yangru Wu & Weike Xu, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Investment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(8), pages 2023-2059, December.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hajilee, Massomeh, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on domestic investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-12.
    4. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2020. "The effects of transitory and permanent inflation uncertainty on investment in Ghana," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-217, February.
    5. Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2015. "Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 529-558, March.
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Trabelsi, Nader & Wohar, Mark, 2024. "Do shipping freight markets impact commodity markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 986-1014.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    8. Ghosal, Vivek & Ye, Yang, 2019. "The impact of uncertainty on the number of businesses," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    9. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    10. Pawlina, Grzegorz & Kort, Peter M., 2005. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1193-1209, July.
    11. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.
    12. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Sleem, Mohamed A.E., 2023. "Short- and long-run determinants of the price behavior of US clean energy stocks: A dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and domestic investment in Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1362157-136, January.
    14. F. Bacchini & M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & C. Jona Lasinio, 2014. "ICT and Non-ICT investments: short and long run macro dynamics," Working Papers wp956, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Jérôme Bourdieu & Benoît Coeuré & Béatrice Sédillot, 1997. "Investissement, incertitude et irréversibilité. Quelques développements récents de la théorie de l'investissement," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 23-53.
    16. Hu, Guoheng & Gozgor, Giray & Lu, Zhou & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Pal, Shreya, 2024. "Determinants of renewable stock returns: The role of global supply chain pressure," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Sharon Belenzon & Victor Manuel Bennett & Andrea Patacconi, 2019. "Flexible Production and Entry: Institutional, Technological, and Organizational Determinants," NBER Working Papers 25659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Chen, Yinghui, 2021. "Does political turnover stifle or stimulate corporate innovation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1126-1145.
    19. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," ifo Working Paper Series 221, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. Alam, Ahmed W. & Houston, Reza & Farjana, Ashupta, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate investment: How do politically connected firms respond?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-25-00141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.