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Geopolitics and investment cycles in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Bahar Ulupinar

    (West Chester University of PA)

  • Isa Camyar

    (St. Francis College, Brooklyn)

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between geopolitical crises and investment cycles in the United States. Using a novel dataset on geopolitical crises over the period of 1960 to 2019, we find that the dimensionality of geopolitical crises (duration, intensity and scope) and the temporal nature of their impact (short-run versus long-run) need to be properly considered when studying the implications of these crises for investment. Our analysis also suggests that geopolitical crises can boost investment spending in the U.S. economy if the United States is not directly involved in them.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahar Ulupinar & Isa Camyar, 2025. "Geopolitics and investment cycles in the United States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(2), pages 1013-1028.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-25-00141
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I2-P88.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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