IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-17-00718.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate and output variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 1950-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-pascal Bassino

    (Normal Superior School of Lyon, France.)

  • Celine Gimet

    (Institute of Political Studies Aix-en-Provence, France.)

  • Stephane Quefelec

    (ENERGIES 2050, France)

Abstract

Despite the large literature on the link between climate evolution and country economic performance, the specific question of the effects of climatic changes via the agricultural sector broken down by annual seasons in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which is considered as a hotspot of climate change, remains largely understudied. This paper investigates both the incidences of seasonal rainfall and temperature variations on GDP from an historical perspective and the impact of climate anomalies on cereal output. Our results point to the fact that climate shocks affect significantly the GDP of Euro-Mediterranean countries specialized in the agricultural production, in particular during winter and spring. In these seasons, the impacts of climate anomalies are strong on cereal output in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. These results underline the fact that agriculture is one of the main channels of the influence of climate change on GDP in this region. Crop diversification could be part of the response for enhancing resilience of the entire economy while preserving food security objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-pascal Bassino & Celine Gimet & Stephane Quefelec, 2018. "Climate and output variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 1950-2000," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1811-1822.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00718
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2018/Volume38/EB-18-V38-I4-P168.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    2. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    4. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    5. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Williams, Larry, 2006. "The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 159-178, April.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262012638, April.
    7. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
    8. Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Roson, Roberto, 2010. "Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 515-533, October.
    9. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    10. Masters, William A & McMillan, Margaret S, 2001. "Climate and Scale in Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 167-186, September.
    11. Jean‐Pascal Bassino & Jean‐Pierre Dormois, 2010. "Rainfall, The Méline Tariff, And Wheat Production In Mediterranean France, 1885–1914," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
    12. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    13. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 198-204, May.
    14. Tanzi,Vito & Schuknecht,Ludger, 2000. "Public Spending in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662918, October.
    15. BARRIOS, Salvador & BERTINELLI, Luisito & STROBL, Eric, 2003. "Dry times in Africa: Rainfall and Africa's growth performance," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    16. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    17. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    18. -, 2009. "Economic growth in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38668, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    19. World Bank, 2007. "Making the Most of Scarcity : Accountability for Better Water Management Results in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6845.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    2. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    3. Li Chen & Bin Jiang & Chuan Wang, 2023. "Climate change and urban total factor productivity: evidence from capital cities and municipalities in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 401-441, July.
    4. Franziska Piontek & Matthias Kalkuhl & Elmar Kriegler & Anselm Schultes & Marian Leimbach & Ottmar Edenhofer & Nico Bauer, 2019. "Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1357-1385, August.
    5. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    6. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    8. De Juan Fernández, Aránzazu & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 35044, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2020. "Identifying and disentangling the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Ingrid Dallmann, 2019. "Weather Variations and International Trade," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 155-206, January.
    11. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Woitek, Ulrich, 2022. "Prenatal climate shocks and adult height in developing countries. Evidence from Japan (1872–1917)," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    12. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven E., 2021. "The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Sheng, Yu & Xu, Xinpeng, 2019. "The productivity impact of climate change: Evidence from Australia's Millennium drought," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-191.
    14. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Rodrigo Garcia‐Verdu & Alexis Meyer‐Cirkel & Akira Sasahara & Hans Weisfeld, 2022. "Importing inputs for climate change mitigation: The case of agricultural productivity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 34-56, February.
    16. Dongyeol Lee & Huan Zhang & Chau Nguyen, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness," IMF Working Papers 2018/108, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Asfaw, Solomon & Mortari, Andrea Piano & Arslan, Aslihan & Karfakis, Panagiotis & Lipper, Leslie, 2015. "Welfare Impacts of Climate Shocks: Evidence from Uganda," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 229060, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Du, Ding & Zhao, Xiaobing, 2016. "Temperature and US Economic Activity: Evidence from Disaggregated Data," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235105, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    20. Rigas, Nikos & Kounetas, Konstantinos, 2021. "The Role of temperature, Precipitation and CO2 emissions on Countries’ Economic Growth and Productivity," MPRA Paper 104727, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cereals; climate anomalies; generalized method of moments (GMM); GDP; rainfall; temperatures.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.