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A short note on business cycles of underground output: are they asymmetric?

Author

Listed:
  • Yoke-Kee Eng

    () (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman)

  • Chin-Yoong Wong

    () (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman)

Abstract

This short note as the first study investigates the symmetry of fluctuations of underground output around trend for four selected Southeast Asian countries, that is, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines, over the time horizon of 1970-2006. In particular, we test if the underground output falls below trend more drastically and severely at shorter time span than when rising above trend. We find no evidence that supports this hypothesis. We thus conclude that asymmetry in fluctuations around trend is not a primary concern in understanding the nature of underground economy. We suggest that the symmetry of fluctuation of underground output, in conjunction with the potential complementary effect on market consumption, may account for the widely documented expansionary fiscal contraction in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoke-Kee Eng & Chin-Yoong Wong, 2008. "A short note on business cycles of underground output: are they asymmetric?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(58), pages 1-10.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08c20049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2006. "Market consumption and hidden consumption. A test for substitutability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 707-716.
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    3. Giles, David E A, 1997. "Testing for Asymmetry in the Measured and Underground Business Cycles in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 225-232, September.
    4. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1.
    5. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 156-190.
    6. Khurshid Kiani, 2005. "Detecting Business Cycle Asymmetries Using Artificial Neural Networks and Time Series Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 65-89, August.
    7. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January.
    9. Juan-Carlos Cordoba, 2004. "Debt-Constraints or Incomplete Markets? A Decomposition of the Wealth and Consumption Inequality in the U.S," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 335, Econometric Society.
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    Cited by:

    1. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2010. "The Unofficial Economy and the Business Cycle: A Test for Theories," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 573-586.
    2. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2010. "The Unofficial Economy and the Business Cycle: A Test for Theories," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 573-586.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Underground economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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